Right now I think the biggest risk is not the attack itself — it’s the possibility of escalation afterward.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most sensitive energy routes in the world, so even limited military activity there immediately affects oil flows, market sentiment, and global risk appetite.

What I’m watching closely is whether both sides keep the situation contained or start responding more aggressively over the next few days. Usually markets react hardest when uncertainty increases faster than verified information.

Another important thing is official confirmation flow. Early headlines already pushed volatility higher across oil, equities, and crypto, but traders still want clarity on how large the operation actually was and whether more military action is expected.

Personally, I think markets can stabilize if diplomacy starts appearing again in headlines. But if retaliatory moves continue, risk assets will probably stay under pressure while defensive positioning grows stronger.

At the moment this feels less like a resolved situation and more like the beginning of a high-tension phase where every new headline can rapidly move markets.

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