📍NFP in April again exceeds forecasts

📌U.S. non-farm payrolls in April increased by +115K jobs (far above the forecast of only +65K).
March was revised from +178K to +185K, but February was revised downward from -133K to -156K.
The total for the 2 months was adjusted lower than the previous report by -16K.
📌Job gains came mainly from defense and service sectors, such as education - healthcare +46K, transportation - warehousing +30K, retail +22K, and entertainment - lodging +14K.
More cyclical-sensitive sectors weakened: finance -11K, government -9K, manufacturing -2K.
Government employment has been declining continuously since the end of 2025.
📌While the business survey showed payrolls rising by +115K, the household survey showed employment falling by -226K in April, the 4th consecutive month of decline.
Full-time jobs dropped sharply by -424K, while part-time jobs increased by +123K.
=> The number of full-time workers fell to the lowest level since 12/2024.
📌The Birth/Death model contributed +391K jobs in April, the highest since 10/2025.
If most of the payroll strength comes from estimates for newly established businesses minus the number of closures, the risk of later data revisions will be larger (less reliable).
📌Wages also cooled down.
Average hourly earnings rose by +0.2% MoM (below the forecast of +0.3%) and +3.6% YoY (also below the forecast of +3.8%).
Wage moderation suggests that service-sector inflationary pressure is gradually easing.
A solid NFP report, with only two noteworthy points: the decline in the household survey, and the Birth/Death model contributing too much.
The U.S. stock market continues to break new highs.