🟡 Gold (GC) Technical Analysis — May 9, 2026

Current Spot: ~$4,740/oz | GC Jun Futures: ~$4,621

Gold is in a fascinating tug-of-war between a bearish short-term technical setup and a relentlessly bullish macro fundamental backdrop.

📊 TECHNICAL PICTURE

A rising bearish wedge broke down on April 21, triggering a corrective slide. Gold hit a swing low of $4,510 before bouncing with a higher high at $4,647 and higher low at $4,539 the first bullish reversal signal in 11 days. However, the larger corrective process remains incomplete.

Key Resistance: 20-day MA ($4,721) → 100-day MA ($4,761). Gold needs to reclaim the 20-day MA to shift the short-term trend bullish.

Key Support: February spike low ($4,402) → 200-day MA ($4,277). The $4,400-$4,500 zone is the critical downside target area.

📉 MACRO FUNDAMENTALS — STRONGLY BULLISH

• Central banks purchased 244 tonnes net in Q1 2026 de-dollarization remains the dominant structural driver
• DXY weakening near 98.27, 10Y yields at 4.37% both supportive for gold
• Hawkish Fed (only 1 rate cut signaled for 2026) + sticky 3.3% CPI = policy error risk → bullish catalyst
• US-Iran deal stalled, geopolitical tensions elevated safe-haven demand intact

🎯 JUNE END FORECAST

Polymarket assigns 65% probability to gold closing above $4,600 by June 30. JPMorgan forecasts Q2 average of $4,655/oz. WisdomTree targets $5,500 by Q1 2027 with downside capped near $4,630.

My assessment: the technical correction likely retests the $4,400-$4,500 support zone in coming weeks, but powerful fundamentals should limit downside. By end of June, I expect GC to settle in the $4,600-$4,900 range with a realistic target of ~$4,750. If the Fed signals more cuts or geopolitical tensions escalate, a push toward $5,000+ becomes plausible.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

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