#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC has fallen back from high levels and entered into divergence, is this a mid-term adjustment or a trend reversal? Let's analyze the upcoming market from several perspectives.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC has fallen back from high levels and entered into divergence, is this a mid-term adjustment or a trend reversal? Let's analyze the upcoming market from several perspectives.
First, look at the daily chart on the larger cycle. Recently, Bitcoin successfully broke through the previous high resistance at $79,200. After the breakout, it didn't surge straight up; instead, it experienced a quick short-term shakeout to clear out floating positions.
After the shakeout, the price steadily stayed above $78,900, with a high touch near $80,900. Currently, both spot and futures have moved into the previous long-term sideways trading low zone. The overseas gap has been fully filled, and the large-scale bullish structure is particularly solid. Here’s a key takeaway: the low point of the previous long-term consolidation zone is the watershed of the market trend.
Back when the market bottomed at $65,200, the market was crowded with bears, which provided a foundation for short squeeze-driven rally. For this recovery, everyone just needs to watch the previous consolidation low at $80,500. Whether the price can effectively hold above this level is the core signal of a trend reversal.
Reviewing the 2022 bear market reveals the pattern: each rebound failed to reach the previous consolidation low, followed by continued decline. Only when the price truly stabilizes at this critical level does the market structure fully reverse, marking the end of the bear phase and the beginning of a new rally.
Now everyone is anxious: can the support at $78,900 hold? If it breaks, will the last expected dip really happen? Where is the truly safe zone for bottom fishing? Those holding no positions fear chasing a high, while those with positions worry about missing the rally—everyone is caught in a dilemma. We all understand this mindset!
In the short term, just keep a close eye on the $79,200 level. As long as the daily chart doesn’t break below this level convincingly, even with normal pullbacks, the downside is very limited. There’s no need to panic and sell in fear. Even if the price temporarily breaks below in the short term, don’t rush to short. Wait for the daily candle to close with a stable pattern, clarify the second wave trend, and then decide. Don’t fall into the trap of the main force’s short-term inducement to short, like last week’s move around $76,100. After a slight dip, the price didn’t drop sharply with volume; instead, it sideways accumulated. This is a typical trap set by the main players to induce short positions—blindly following the short side will only get you stopped out repeatedly and harvested. The market sentiment is even clearer: in the past month, open interest has been rising, with more and more shorts, while retail traders are collectively bearish. But the institutional funds are continuously accumulating against the trend. Their routine is to first wipe out the contrarian shorts, then pull back to shake out short-term chasing longs. When everyone is bearish and sentiment is one-sided, the market will rally again, restoring the trend—classic long and short trap. So this pullback is a normal technical correction. Without major negative news, there’s no need to panic. Currently, retail traders’ average cost basis is around $78,500, which is a key short-term support level. During this consolidation phase, less trading and following signals patiently is the best approach.
Now that Bitcoin has risen above $80k and touched $80,500, everyone is asking two questions:
How much more room is there for a correction? Will there be one last deep dip to trap traders? Where is the safe zone for bottom fishing?
Based on market supply and demand and historical cycle patterns, here’s a straightforward explanation:
This rally has been a gradual ascent driven mainly by two factors:
First, continuous short covering in futures contracts, pushing the market upward;
Second, a complete reversal in spot supply and demand, significantly reducing selling pressure and supporting the rally. Relying solely on futures funding cannot sustain a long-term rally.
Why is spot selling pressure so low? First, institutions and whales are quietly accumulating in low positions, with Bitcoin inventories on exchanges decreasing, locking in large amounts of chips;
Second, retail traders have panicked and exited early, releasing selling pressure, so the market naturally doesn’t fall easily.
Currently, the market exhibits a typical pattern of easy to rise but hard to fall. Meanwhile, a large number of bearish chips have become a push factor for the market to go higher, which is the fundamental reason for the lack of a deep correction.
Looking at the four-year cycle, as long as there are no sudden black swan events or major negative news, even if there’s a final dip, the correction space is very limited. No need to be overly bearish.
Historical patterns show that the bottom of a bear market is where chips are densely exchanged. Reviewing the early February market, the $66,100 level saw a massive turnover, serving as a strong support bottom line. Therefore, if this last dip occurs, the optimal bottom-fishing zone is: $65,100–$66,100.
Practical strategy: Hold your core position steady and wait for volume to pick up on the right side before adding more.
Here’s a simple, robust practical plan: For those who already bought around $60,100, just hold steady—no need to add or reduce positions or tinker frequently.
If you have spare funds, don’t rush to buy on the left side. The market is still in the early stage of transitioning from a bear to a consolidation phase, not a full bull. Be patient, wait for volume to stabilize on the right side, and only add positions once the pattern is clear, to avoid risks during consolidation.
For future additions, key signals to watch: first, test the $84,000 resistance; second, see if the price can hold above $80,500 support; third, re-establish above the critical $90,700 level. Only when these conditions are met can you confirm the low at around $64,900. It’s unlikely to see such a low again. Until then, the market will be oscillating around your cost basis, so maintaining a calm mindset is most important.