May 9 Ethereum 15-Minute Price Analysis

1. Overall Trend Judgment

From the 15-minute cycle, the downward structure initiated from Ethereum's previous high of $2,423 has not yet completed. It is currently in a weak correction phase after a high-level consolidation, with a clear bearish trend for the day. After failing to break above $2,400, the price's center of gravity continues to shift downward, short-term moving averages are turning down, and combined with wave structures, there is still room for further decline. The rebound is mostly viewed as a technical correction within a bearish trend.

2. Wave Structure Breakdown

1. Main downward wave formed: The previous high point (1) to low point (2) completed the primary A wave decline, followed by a rebound (2)-(3) as a B wave correction. Currently, it is in the relay stage of the C wave decline.
2. Key pattern signals: The green annotation in the chart indicates a typical bearish continuation triangle pattern. After consolidation within the triangle, the probability of a downward breakout is very high. The current rebound high (5) near $2,348 is an important short entry zone. The rebound strength has clearly weakened compared to earlier, and volume has not shown significant expansion, indicating a weak rebound.
3. Target level projection: Based on wave theory's equal-length target calculation for the C wave, the first target of this decline is around $2,269. If this support is broken, the next strong support is at $2,229.

3. Key Price Level Analysis

| Type | Price Range | Analysis Description |
|------------------|----------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Strong Resistance| $2,424 | Previous high point; if not broken, bearish trend remains intact |
| Resistance | $2,398 | 0.382 retracement level of the decline, selling pressure is heavy |
| Secondary Resistance| $2,379 | Short-term upper boundary of consolidation; rebound here may face resistance and fall back |
| Key Resistance | $2,348 | The high point of this C wave rebound, also the resistance of the bearish trendline |
| Support | $2,269 | Near previous low, last line of defense for bulls |
| Strong Support | $2,229 | Critical support in the downtrend; if broken, further decline opens |

4. Trading Strategy Reference

1. Bearish Strategy:
- Aggressive plan: Enter short positions in batches within the $2,340-$2,380 range, with stop-loss above $2,400, targeting $2,300 and $2,260.
- Conservative plan: Wait for a rebound to encounter resistance at $2,390-$2,400 and then short, with a stop-loss at $2,440, targeting $2,330 and $2,280.
2. Bullish Strategy:
- Only attempt short-term longs if the price shows signs of stabilization at the support zone of $2,260-$2,270 (e.g., long lower shadows, volume-supported rebounds), with a stop-loss at $2,230, targeting the $2,300-$2,330 range.
- Note that the overall trend is bearish; long positions are suitable only for quick trades, not long-term holding.

5. Risk Reminder

- On the macro level, Bitcoin's volatility influences Ethereum's movement. If Bitcoin surges sharply, it may disrupt the current downtrend.
- Technically, a volume breakout above $2,400 and stabilization could break the current bearish structure, possibly reversing the trend.
- All trades should strictly set stop-losses, control position sizes, and avoid unnecessary losses caused by high leverage.

The above analysis is based solely on the current 15-minute technical structure. Since the market is highly volatile, actual operations should be flexibly adjusted according to real-time market signals.