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BTC suddenly plummets, and the real big boss is actually Powell?
Many people think that this drop below 80k USD is all because of the US-Iran conflict.
Actually, that's only half the story.
War can only create panic,
The true factor that determines the market direction is still the Federal Reserve.
Because now all assets worldwide are living in one sentence:
"When will the interest rate be cut?"
After the US-Iran conflict escalated, oil prices fluctuated sharply, and high oil prices increase inflation pressure.
This means the Federal Reserve might be even less willing to cut rates easily.
So the market suddenly realizes:
Uh-oh,
High interest rates might have to continue for a while.
This is the real reason behind Bitcoin's sharp drop.
Because over the past two years, one of the biggest underlying reasons for Bitcoin's rise has been the expectation that global liquidity will loosen again in the future.
But if rate cuts continue to be delayed, the market valuation system will come under renewed pressure.
And tonight’s non-farm payrolls report is the key validation.
If employment remains strong, it indicates the US economy doesn’t need a "rescue," and the probability of the Fed maintaining high interest rates will be higher.
BTC may continue to be under short-term pressure.
But if the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, the market will reignite hopes for rate cuts.
At that point, it wouldn’t be surprising if BTC reattacks 80k USD or quickly recovers its losses.
So right now, the market is very much like:
One side worries about war;
The other side hopes the economy worsens;
And in the end, we still have to thank the Fed for not being too hawkish.
Wall Street is no longer schizophrenic,
But starting to experience "quantum splitting." #Bitcoin drops below 80k USD