Has the Federal Reserve's 2026 script changed again?

Latest interest rate futures data shows the market is slightly lowering expectations for rate hikes in 2026.
🔍 Core intelligence breakdown:
1️⃣
Expectations cooling: US interest rate futures have recently slightly reversed their bets on rate hikes in 2026.
Although inflation data remains sticky (core PCE expected at 2.7%), the market is beginning to digest the expectation of "no longer worsening."
2️⃣
Maintaining high levels: Currently, at the June 17 FOMC meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% remains as high as 93.9%.
While rate hike expectations have decreased, "Higher for Longer" remains the main theme.
3️⃣
Whale game: This macro-level "fine-tuning" is a matter of life and death for the high-leverage whales we monitor.
The cooling of rate hike expectations means less pressure on risk assets (BTC/ETH).
What rate hike expectations will fall? Because the market is betting on a rebalancing between "geopolitical risks" and "economic recession."
For that anti-position whale holding a $49 million ETH short, this is definitely not good news.
Decreased probability of rate hikes = slower liquidity tightening = increased space for risk assets to rebound.
If BTC stabilizes above 80k, these shorts are the pure "fuel."
Under the replacement of the Federal Reserve chair (with the start of the Kevin Warsh era) and pressure from the Trump administration, monetary policy in 2026 has become a tug-of-war between politics and economics.
Do you believe the Fed can suppress inflation, or do you believe in Qin Shi Huang?
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