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#Gate广场五月交易分享 Exchange reserves fall to a seven-year low as a 270K BTC whale nets purchases that compress circulating float—Is $80K support or a trap?
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, accumulating about $2.7B, including a $629M single-day inflow on May 1 that ranks among the strongest daily figures of 2026. The core significance of this liquidity event isn’t optimism in sentiment, but structural supply compression: each ETF net inflow essentially involves authorized participants buying BTC in the spot market and transferring it to the issuer for custody, after which the assets exit tradable circulating supply. Combined with Bitcoin exchange reserves dropping to the lowest level since December 2017, at 2.21 million BTC, today’s market’s central contradiction isn’t direction—it’s whether, amid extremely compressed floating supply, the price has sustained spot-trading-volume support, or whether this rally has already exhausted the available squeeze capacity in the short term.
On the external liquidity front, macro pressure hasn’t disappeared, but it has eased at the margin. US Secretary of State Rubio’s remarks on the military situation around the Strait of Hormuz pushed the dollar and oil prices lower, and BTC rebounded to $81,600, indicating that BTC’s current short-term fluctuations remain significantly negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index. However, this relationship is inherently fragile: the 30-day correlation coefficient between the crypto market and the S&P 500 is as high as 84%, and with gold it is 87%. This is not a move toward de-correlation; it’s an amplifier of macro sentiment. In the stablecoin segment, the total market value of stablecoins in Q1 2026 reached a historical peak of $315-316B. Capital hasn’t left; instead, it remains defensively parked in dollar-pegged instruments. This provides munitions for subsequent rotation, but at this moment there are no signs of large-scale switching from stablecoins into spot BTC.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, totaling about $2.7 billion, with a single-day inflow of $629 million on May 1st being one of the strongest daily data points in 2026. The core significance of this liquidity event is not optimism in sentiment, but structural supply compression: each ETF net inflow is actually authorized participants buying BTC from the spot market and transferring it to the issuer for custody, causing the assets to exit tradable circulating supply. Coupled with exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since December 2017, at 2.21 million BTC, the market’s core contradiction today is not the direction, but whether the price can be sustained by ongoing spot trading volume support amid extremely compressed floating supply, or whether this rally has already exhausted the short-term squeeze potential.
On the external liquidity side, macro pressures have not dissipated but have eased marginally. US Secretary of State Blinken’s comments on the Strait of Hormuz military situation pushed the dollar and oil prices lower, with BTC rebounding to $81,600. This indicates that BTC’s current short-term correlation with the dollar index remains significantly negative. However, this correlation is inherently fragile—cryptocurrency markets have a 30-day correlation coefficient of up to 84% with the S&P 500 and 87% with gold. This is not de-correlation but an amplifier of macro sentiment. On the stablecoin front, the total market cap of stablecoins reached a historic peak of $315-316 billion in Q1 2026. Capital has not left but remains in a defensive posture within dollar-pegged instruments, providing ammunition for subsequent rotations, but at this moment, there are no signs of large-scale rebalancing from stablecoins into spot BTC.