Analysis: Bitcoin surged and then fell back, dropping below $80,000; ETF fund outflows combined with geopolitical risks have weighed on market sentiment.

Breaking News from Mars Finance: Bitcoin has slipped below the $80,000 mark this week. After a consecutive five-day run of net inflows into spot ETFs, market rebound momentum from the February lows has started to cool off.

In the U.S. April non-farm payrolls report, jobs increased by 115,000, beating expectations of 62,000 people. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

Although the data was generally strong, it did not significantly ease market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it reinforced expectations of “energy-driven inflation limiting room for rate cuts.”

As for capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs turned to a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending the prior stretch of continuous net inflows totaling $1.69 billion. Ethereum ETFs also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, suggesting that institutional risk appetite has cooled in the short term.

On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have again escalated. The market has re-priced the risk of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and partially offsetting the support for risk assets that had been pressured by earlier oil-price declines.

The derivatives market points to more long-term hawkish expectations. Interest rate futures pricing implies more than a 50% probability of rate hikes after 2027, and the easing cycle may be delayed until 2028.

In on-chain terms, Bitcoin’s current rally has been driven mainly by institutional spot buying and short covering. Retail participation remains relatively low, funding rates are staying at a moderate level, and the market’s momentum structure appears weak.

Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC still faces the risk of retesting the $75,000–$78,000 support zone.