#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC is highly likely to have a second test; when will the last dip before takeoff occur?

In the past two days, BTC's price broke through $80k. Is it that many people are starting to feel optimistic again, just like American traders, still firmly expecting BTC to reach $200k by the end of the year? But often, the most optimistic moment is also when you begin to fall into a trap.
However, multiple indicators—trading volume, historical data, and more—tell you that before Bitcoin truly takes off, there will inevitably be a "second test" that causes most people to hand over their chips. Under this bullish market, where traders are lured into deep water and short-squeeze liquidations are nearing the end, don’t let a temporary rebound blind your eyes.

Hunting Longs: The "Nuclear Bomb" on the Liquidation Map Has Been Laid
Currently, the market looks less like a "bullish charge" and more like a targeted "precision hunt" against longs. By observing the liquidation data, you’ll find a chilling odds disparity:
Looking upward: Even if BTC is forcibly pushed to $87,000, only about $4.5 billion in short positions will be liquidated. Short positions have already been thoroughly cleaned out by previous violent surges.
Looking downward: If the market retraces to $71,000, over $13.1 billion in long positions will instantly vanish. This cost-effectiveness indicates that after breaking through $80k, the entire market has begun to firmly turn bullish. But this is exactly the time to be very cautious—who would want to pull such a heavy cart? Just a 10% pullback could wipe out over $13 billion in long positions and trigger a chain of liquidations. Such high-risk events could lead to a cascade of panic selling. At this moment, what reason do you have to hold your bullets and activate your hedging mode?

Three Major Macro Risks: The Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the June "Life-and-Death Test"
If you think technical analysis is just a reference, then three macro "certainty events" are converging into a storm:
First, the "curse" of Japan’s rate hikes: Latest news indicates that the Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates to 1.00% (+25bp) around June or July 2026, with an over 80% probability. Historically, every rate hike by Japan has caused BTC to shake violently:
March 2024: BTC down -23%
July 2024: BTC down -26%
January 2025: BTC down -31%
This time, combined with the June time window, history is highly aligned.
Based on historical data:
1. After a weekly golden cross rebound to around 32.2% (estimated $83k–$85k), it’s likely to enter a golden cross correction and bottoming phase. The current rebound is just that—a rebound, not a sign of trend reversal.
2. Additionally, considering our previous July–August analysis, Bitcoin may see a major bottom around this period, which coincides with the decline following Japan’s rate hikes in June or July.

Second, the "changeover curse" of the Federal Reserve: On May 15, 2026, the Fed Chair will face a leadership transition. Historical patterns show that power handovers often bring extreme volatility in market liquidity and policy uncertainty, with large corrections as a "惯性反应" (inertial response). Can Kevin Woorh, the new Fed Chair, break this curse? Or will he follow Trump’s arrangements?

Third, divergence in capital flows: Despite stablecoin market cap reaching a new high (320 billion USD), note that USDT’s market cap has not broken new highs along with BTC. Off-chain capital is on hold, while on-chain funds are playing a game. Among them, Ethereum Layer 1 stablecoins account for 52.23%. These large stablecoin holdings are "lying dormant" on the Ethereum chain, which is not a sign of a raging bull market.

Marking the Boat: Why Is the "Second Test" the Only Way to Confirm the Bottom?
Many ask why a second test is necessary. Because it’s a psychological consensus and a physical market test of pressure.
Historical pattern 1: Why BTC is highly likely to have a second test
Marking the boat to seek the sword
◆2015 had two dips.◆2018 and 2020 each had two dips.◆2022 had two dips.
A pattern repeating twice might be coincidence, but the third time is less likely. The story of the wolf coming twice deceives, but no one believes it the third time. So, repeating three times suggests some logical basis. Since October 2025 until now, only half a year has passed. Because this bear market has lasted a year, many funds may not enter before September. BTC has already hit a new high of $83k, but USDT’s market cap hasn’t increased, indicating no new funds are entering, which may relate to this year-long bear consensus. This is why this second test has repeated three times in history.
Historical pattern 2: Warnings from the MVRV indicator:
Before the last dip of the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin’s MVRV bottomed at 1.15, with a maximum rebound of 1.63.
In this cycle, so far, Bitcoin’s MVRV has bottomed at 1.14, with a maximum rebound of 1.50. The final "desperate" retracement is still needed to fully release risk. The truth is: stocks are supported by profits and dividends, but BTC’s value requires extreme volatility to complete consensus exchange. Major players need a second test to confirm retail traders’ despair, then wipe out floating chips and execute the final big buy-in.

Technical Pattern: Structure Similar to 2022
BTC is now precisely replicating the 2022 trend:
Bitcoin is copying the 2022 pattern
Breaking key support
Retesting resistance (诱多)
The last wave of accelerated decline signals the start of a major move. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced its largest rally in history.
By 2026: the structure is identical. We’ve just completed a retest of resistance. The trap effect is nearly perfect because "Bitcoin will surge to 100K" has become a widely believed mantra. If not now, then when? If history repeats—there will be one last dip before a real rally.

Confirmation of technical pattern: the market ends consolidation and is about to enter a high-volatility expansion phase. Core chart signals show that the long-term accumulated technical pattern is fully mature, and historical data indicates this indicator has never failed. The market has moved past the wait-and-see stage; this is not a slow bottoming process but a critical point for explosive price expansion. As an investor, you should realize that extreme volatility is imminent, and you must be prepared for major price swings.

Final Prediction: Where Is the Bottom?
The market is rebounding, not reversing!
Time window: June–July 2026 is a high-risk period.
Considering the "one-year bear" consensus, the real bottom may appear between July and August.
Space expectation: Bitcoin falling to $60k in February is a "second test." While it may not drop to the extreme $42,000 some speculate, a retracement to the $50k–$55k range for support is highly probable.

Conclusion: BTC’s rebound to around $85k is extreme. When will the "last dip" arrive, and how low will it go? The key is, the harder it falls, the cleaner the chips are washed, and the higher the subsequent surge can reach.

The views expressed are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice!