#CLARITY法案推进受阻

Let's talk about the obstacles faced by the CLARITY Act and share some honest opinions.

Currently, the bill's progress is indeed stalled by resistance from the banking industry, but I still believe that the momentum of bipartisan cooperation is likely to push the bill forward. The two parties have already compromised on the stablecoin yield provisions, and although the banking industry still opposes, the bill itself has formed a unified text, and supporters have clearly stated they will not make further concessions. The core demand of the banking industry is to completely shut down stablecoin yields, but the current version of the bill bans passive interest, leaving only room for active rewards, which is already a compromise acceptable to both sides. Additionally, supporters warn that if the bill is not passed by August, the U.S. could permanently lose its dominance in digital assets. Under this external pressure, the bill is likely to break through amid repeated tug-of-war, though there may be some delays in timing.

Once the stablecoin policy is implemented, its impact on traditional finance and the crypto market will diverge. For banks, the bill has already offset the risk of deposit outflows by restricting yield provisions; stablecoins will no longer generate passive interest like bank deposits, so the impact on banks will be much smaller than market fears. But for the crypto market, this is a real long-term positive. With a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, it’s like giving the market a reassurance, and compliant stablecoins will have more stable liquidity, which will also boost the overall risk appetite in the crypto market. Especially for leading stablecoins like USDC and USDT, after compliance, the entry barrier for institutional funds will be lower, which is also an indirect benefit for mainstream coins like BTC and ETH.

Overall, I remain optimistic about the bill's passage within the year, and market forecasts already estimate a probability of over 60%. Even if the banking industry continues to oppose, it will be difficult to overturn the bipartisan compromise text that has already been reached; at most, there will be some adjustments to details. For ordinary users, there’s no need to worry excessively—passing the bill is a long-term positive, and short-term market fluctuations shouldn’t be overemphasized. As long as the issuance and circulation of compliant stablecoins are not completely restricted, the overall market direction will remain unchanged.