Evening Non-Farm Thought Analysis, Counterattack with a Short

Tonight’s Non-Farm data lands: in the US, April seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 115,000. Although it fell back as expected, it was still far above the market’s forecast of 62,000. This result—employment resilience exceeding expectations—fully confirms my previous bearish judgment: this batch of data won’t bring too many surprises for longs; instead, it’s a breakdown signal from the short side after a prolonged stall and sideways consolidation at high levels.

From the technical side, warnings had already been issued. On the daily timeframe, there has been high-level stagnation and a MACD dead cross. With volume-price divergence in place, longs’ rebound lacks strength. The 80,000 level, which once acted as strong support, has completely flipped into strong resistance. Before the data was released, I clearly stated that within the key range the short side has the advantage: as long as the 81,000 resistance level is not broken, longs have no chance to turn things around.

After the data came out, the market followed the script perfectly. The above-forecast employment data strengthened the Fed’s “hawkish” expectations. Bitcoin hit resistance around 81,500 and pulled back. This perfectly matches my short setup plan around 80,800-81,500, with an operational idea targeting 79,500-77,500. Employment resilience exceeding expectations means rate-cut expectations are pushed back again. And the short-side structure from the technical setup has already been building momentum; the data only served as the fuse that ignited the selloff.

Trading Suggestions:
Bitcoin rebounds to around 80,800-81,500 to set up shorts, targeting 79,500-79,000. Keep an eye on the situation and control your position size.
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