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May 8th US Employment Data Released
Today's biggest development was the US employment report. In fact, we could call it the biggest event of the week, because we're talking about reports that directly affect the Fed's interest rate policy. Since the Fed is tasked with both maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, a potential contraction in employment could lead to interest rate cuts, similar to those planned for the end of 2025.
The Fed is concerned that inflation will rise further due to the increase in oil prices. Therefore, interest rate cuts have been postponed for 5 months, and monthly inflation has seen increases of up to 1%. Employment, however, is relatively good, partly due to Trump's immigration policies. So, what were today's figures?
US Unemployment Rate Announced: 4.3% (Expected and Previous: 4.3%)
US Non-Farm Payrolls Announced: 115K (Expected: 65K Previous: 178K)
Average Earnings Announced: 3.6% (Expected: 3.8% Previous: 3.5%)
These figures suggest that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts even further. Especially with triple-digit oil prices fueling energy inflation, we may not see interest rate cuts until 2026. Trump was right in his assessment last year; while his immigration policy reduced job supply, it also reduced demand, keeping unemployment relatively low.