$ETH Evening Thoughts | Double Coin Chart Analysis

From the hourly major cycle perspective, the Double Coin is currently in a large consolidation box, with the core oscillation range locked between 2414–2283. In the morning, the price showed a false break below the box’s lower boundary, then quickly recovered inside the box, indicating the short-term bearish attempt has failed (marked by the white arrow below).

Currently, although the Double Coin has broken above the red arrow’s corresponding yellow downtrend line, it has not yet stabilized above the key support level of 2302. Simply put: without reclaiming 2302, it can only stop the decline but cannot initiate a rebound; only when volume increases and it stabilizes above 2302 can the bullish momentum be fully released, with the initial rebound target at 2345–2390, and potentially higher in the future.

Conversely, if the Double Coin continues downward and breaks below the morning’s low point and the 2257 support zone, the bearish momentum will further intensify, and the price is likely to test around the yellow arrow’s marked 2218.

As long as the Double Coin holds within the box range and the morning’s low point and 2257 support are not broken on a pullback, the hourly bullish trend remains intact, leaving room for upward recovery. A fall from 2400 back to 2260, under the premise of no substantial negative news, suggests a reasonable short-term oversold rebound, and the chart shows a basis for recovery.

Short-term operational references (focus on volume)

• Break above 2292 with volume: go long on the right side

• Break below 2277 with volume: go short on the right side
⚠️ Strictly observe volume changes, be sure to set stop-loss, and strictly control risk

• Hourly level stabilizes above 2292: rebound target at 2336–2379

• 4-hour level breaks below 2266: pullback target at 2228–2177

Key risk warning for the 4-hour level

The Double Coin on the 4-hour chart has broken below the triangle convergence pattern, increasing short-term bearish risk. The following three 4-hour candles provide a repair window:
✅ If within this period, the price re-enters the triangle convergence pattern, the 4-hour downward risk will be directly解除;
❌ If unable to recover the pattern, the support zone between 2233–2176 will become the main target for bears, increasing the risk of deep correction.