J.P. Morgan Forecast: Public Companies' Bitcoin Purchases May Reach $30 Billion by 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, the number of bitcoins held by publicly listed companies worldwide first exceeded 1.15 million, accounting for 5.47% of the total supply. Against this backdrop, JP Morgan analysts released a major research report stating that if the current pace of corporate acquisitions can be maintained, the total scale of bitcoin purchases for all of 2026 may reach around $300 billion. This figure not only far exceeds historical records, but also marks that enterprise-level allocations are moving from edge-case experimentation to becoming a core component of balance sheets.

What scale are listed companies’ bitcoin holdings at?

As of the first quarter of 2026, 187 listed companies disclosed that they hold bitcoin, with total holdings reaching 1.15 million coins—up 4.59% quarter over quarter. Based on the average market price of approximately $67,805 during the same period, the total value of these holdings is about $77 billion. Among all holdings, only Strategy holds about 818,300 coins, with a market value exceeding $65 billion, accounting for approximately 71% of all bitcoin held by listed companies. In Q1, listed companies net increased their holdings by 50,351 bitcoins, of which Strategy contributed about 89,000. That increase in turn even offset the record-breaking 32,000-coin sell-off by listed miners over the same period. Over 95% of the total bitcoin supply has already been mined; only about 164,000 new coins are added each year. Quarter-by-quarter corporate purchases at the 50,000-coin level have become a demand force that cannot be ignored.

The basis and logical framework behind JP Morgan’s $300 billion forecast

JP Morgan’s analysts conduct their projection using Strategy as a key sample. So far in 2026, the company has increased its holdings by 145,834 bitcoins—equivalent to about $11 billion—purchasing at a scale significantly higher than the roughly $22 billion per year levels in 2024 and 2025. If the current accumulation pace is maintained, annual purchases could reach around $300 billion. The analysts point out that since April, Strategy’s buying has accelerated again, and its purchase behavior is increasingly opportunistic—meaning it increases investment when both market conditions and financing windows are favorable. Notably, in 2025 the total capital inflow into the crypto market was about $130 billion. If a single year’s corporate purchases reach the $300 billion level, it means enterprise allocations are surpassing ETF and retail investor funds, becoming the largest single source of capital.

What the “smart money cost line”—the $75,000 purchase range—means

Strategy’s current average purchase cost is about $75,537 per coin. JP Morgan’s report notes that its large-scale purchases mainly occur in price ranges below this cost line. The market meaning of this cost line is multi-dimensional. The $75,537 average price forms a confirmation line—it represents the capital deployment range for the largest corporate bitcoin holders, and it also serves as a macro reference for “institutional-level entry psychological price points.” Whenever the market price falls back to around this level, what the market watches is not only short-term volatility, but also whether enterprise-level funds will trigger large-scale buying again. From the asset valuation logic perspective, this cost line itself is also changing: as Strategy continues to add positions at an average cost of about $75,000, this price is shifting from a “low-cost advantage” to a “fair value anchor” that has been continuously validated.

How a 26% equity premium creates financing windows for ongoing buying

Strategy’s current share price carries a premium of about 26% over its net asset value (NAV), and this premium level has widened further over the past two months. In the core operating mechanism of enterprise bitcoin allocation, the equity premium acts as a key lever. The company raises equity financing at a fair value above NAV; the capital obtained is then used to buy bitcoins. This buying activity further increases BTC holdings per share, thereby reinforcing the market’s expectation of a NAV premium. Strategy finances through multiple channels, including common stock, convertible bonds, and STRC perpetual preferred shares. The STRC instrument, while attracting long-term capital with stable dividends, also provides ample cash flow for BTC purchases. However, the premise for this precise balance is that the premium level remains positive. In 2022, there were scenarios in which the premium disappeared and financing channels narrowed, indicating that the sustainability of this financing model faces cyclical constraints.

How a $300 billion purchase scale reshapes bitcoin’s supply-and-demand landscape

Bitcoin’s annual incremental supply is determined by the halving mechanism every 4 years. Based on the current block reward of 3.125 BTC per block, the theoretical new supply for the year is about 164,000 coins. This implies that annual purchase demand at the level of listed companies alone could be dozens of times, or even a hundred times, the new output. Essentially, a huge gap exists between corporate allocation behavior and supply-side production. This supply-demand imbalance has already been reflected in corporate earnings. In the first quarter of 2026, despite bitcoin prices falling by about 22%, listed companies continued to increase their holdings. Data shows that the absorption ratio of institutional-grade demand for mining output has reached more than 2.8x. Corporate allocation has become a new pillar for stable market liquidity. If $300 billion in enterprise funds keeps flowing in, it will further compress the tradable supply in secondary markets and accelerate the evolution of bitcoin’s asset attribute into “hard storage in circulation.”

From Strategy dominating to diversified allocation: what changes are occurring in the industry landscape

Although Strategy accounts for about 66% of listed companies’ bitcoin holdings, this landscape is experiencing marginal shifts toward diversification. In Q1, Metaplanet purchased about $400 million worth of 5.075 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 40,177 BTC, making it the world’s third-largest corporate bitcoin holder. MARA Holdings reduced its holdings by about 15,000 BTC in Q1 due to debt management, but it still remains in the top five among corporate holders. Different companies’ allocation logics have diverged structurally. One type centers on long-term sovereign treasury storage and tends to add positions opportunistically. Another type treats BTC as a liquidity management tool, adjusting its holdings based on its debt structure and operating cash flows. This trend toward diversification provides greater adjustment resilience and flexibility for enterprise-level allocation demand.

Is a financing-driven buying model sustainable?

Regarding the long-term sustainability of this model, the market has objective, verifiable trade-offs. On the supportive side, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer. In January 2026, the SEC issued regulatory guidance for security token offerings, and in March it further proposed a “safe harbor” framework, which marginally reduces uncertainty for corporate compliance to enter the market. On the constraining side, sustaining the equity premium depends on both market expectations for bitcoin and the company’s own valuation support. If the premium narrows or disappears, the financing window will be significantly compressed. In addition, holding bitcoin brings fair value fluctuation pressure at the accounting level. In the first quarter of 2026, Strategy recorded a net loss of about $12.5 billion, with a large portion coming from mark-to-market losses on its BTC holdings. Although holders generally view price drawdowns as accounting events rather than cash flow events, persistent unrealized losses can gradually affect financing costs and investor sentiment in an incremental way.

Summary

JP Morgan’s forecast that the scale of listed companies’ bitcoin purchases in 2026 could reach $300 billion reveals that enterprise-level allocations are evolving from edge-case experimentation to a core demand. From the historical data of holdings surpassing 1.15 million coins, to the financing mechanisms supported by an approximately 26% equity premium, and to the supply-side rigidity of only about 164,000 new coins produced annually—these three dimensions collectively point to a trend: listed companies are becoming one of the most large-scale and sustained forces in the bitcoin demand hierarchy. However, the long-term evolution of this model depends on the convergence of multiple variables—asset prices, financing windows, accounting frameworks, and regulatory attitudes. The magnitude of capital inflows by itself does not create a linear mapping to future outcomes, but the continued absorption of crypto assets into corporate balance sheets has become a verifiable foundation for structural changes in the bitcoin market.

FAQ

Q1: Is JP Morgan’s forecast of “$300 billion” for only a single listed company or for all listed companies?

This forecast is based on projections centered on Strategy, but the enterprise-level purchase speed and scale trend it reveals reflects an important reference for overall capital inflows at the level of listed companies. As of the first quarter of 2026, listed companies as a whole hold about 1.15 million coins, and Strategy alone holds more than 810,000 coins. Therefore, Strategy’s purchase trajectory has significance as an industry bellwether.

Q2: What is the current state of bitcoin holdings by listed companies?

As of May 8, 2026, Gate’s market data shows that the bitcoin price is in the range of approximately $78,000 to $81,000. Total bitcoin holdings by listed companies have surpassed 1.15 million coins, accounting for about 5.47% of total supply. Strategy holds 818,334 coins, with an average cost of approximately $75,537.

Q3: Why is the equity premium crucial for listed companies to buy bitcoin?

The equity premium enables companies to raise financing at a price higher than their actual net asset value, and then use the additional capital to purchase bitcoin. Buying then increases BTC holdings per share and reinforces expectations of the premium. A premium level of about 26% creates a window for this cycle.

Q4: What are the main risks of this large-scale buying pattern?

The main risks include a decline in the equity premium that narrows the financing window, quarterly earnings volatility caused by fair value accounting standards, and dilution from equity issuance. In 2022, there were cases where the premium disappeared and financing channels became constrained, indicating that the ongoing viability of this model does indeed face cyclical constraints.

Q5: What is the overall structural significance of corporate allocation to the bitcoin market?

Against the backdrop of only about 164,000 new coins added annually, corporate net buying already reached the 50,000-coin level in just one quarter. Enterprise-level allocation provides a longer-term, more structure-driven buying force that is less sensitive to price. This has had a significant impact on the supply-demand balance of the bitcoin market.