Non-farm Payrolls Arrive, Brief Discussion on the Market Outlook:

Tonight at 20:30, this is the last non-farm report during Federal Reserve Chair Powell's term (ending May 15), and it is a key data point before the June FOMC meeting, which will influence the trends of gold, A-shares, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other major assets.

Market expectations: New non-farm employment: 62k - 67k (previously 178k in March, with expectations significantly cooling down). Unemployment rate: 4.3% (unchanged from March).

1. If tonight’s figures are below expectations (e.g., below 50k), it signals a weakening U.S. labor market and economic softness, increasing the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in June.

The market would then show a sharp decline in the dollar, a plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, violent surges in gold and silver, foreign capital inflows into A-shares, and a significant rise in cryptocurrencies.

2. If the data meets expectations or slightly exceeds (60k - 90k), the market remains neutral to slightly bearish, indicating some employment softening but not enough to force the Fed to cut rates immediately.

Overall, short-term volatility is expected, with gold and cryptocurrencies experiencing minor rises followed by pullbacks.

3. If the data significantly exceeds expectations (more than 100k new jobs), signaling a strong U.S. labor market and economic resilience beyond expectations, the probability of a rate cut in June would be shattered, and high interest rates could persist longer.

In this case, the dollar would strengthen, U.S. Treasury yields would rise, gold and cryptocurrencies would plummet, and A-shares could face capital outflows, putting overall pressure on the markets.

Based on these three scenarios and current market sentiment, my personal judgment is that tonight’s non-farm data is most likely neutral to slightly bearish. Earlier small non-farm ADP data exceeded expectations, and recent U.S. initial jobless claims have been relatively low, so employment has not softened as much as expected. The data is likely to meet expectations or slightly exceed them, unlikely to trigger strong rate cut expectations.

Therefore, tonight’s strategy remains to trade with oscillations and rebounds, shorting on dips. Currently, the market is fluctuating around 80,200. After the data release, positions can be arranged according to the actual figures, with resistance at 80,500-81,000 and support at 79,300-87,600. Just oscillate! $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币跌破8万美元 #美伊冲突再升级