This non-farm payroll data (expected 62k, previous 178k) shows a significant shortfall.

Wall Street generally believes that the U.S. labor market will continue to maintain a pattern of "low hiring, low layoffs," and expectations among major investment banks vary greatly;

Citigroup even predicts negative growth (-15k), while JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and other investment banks are relatively optimistic (expecting between 50k and 75k).

The huge divergence indicates that tonight's data is highly uncertain, and market volatility could be significantly amplified;

Non-farm payroll data is the core indicator of Federal Reserve monetary policy, mainly transmitted through the chain of "data performance → rate cut expectations → asset pricing."

If the data falls short of expectations (< 62k): increased rate cut expectations will lead to a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, thus bearish for the US dollar;

It is bullish for spot gold, silver, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH).

If the data exceeds expectations or is significantly higher (> 62k): it indicates that the U.S. economy remains resilient, which will support the dollar’s interest rate advantage, thus bullish for the US dollar;

It is bearish for spot gold, silver, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH).

Considering the ADP data, with new employment of 109k, and ADP data being an important reference for non-farm payrolls;

Therefore, Jingwen predicts that tonight’s release is likely to be above expectations, with a higher probability of being bearish for spot gold, silver, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH.