#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin loses the 80k mark, Ethereum is crushed by whales with 423 million dollars of sell-offs! Next is the “Golden Pit” or the “Bottomless Pit”

Just yesterday, the crypto market was still celebrating Bitcoin breaking through $82k, but overnight, the tone changed dramatically.
1. Bitcoin: The 80k threshold is regained and lost again, where is the last line of defense for the bulls?
Technical analysis: Short-term momentum is exhausted, but not completely dead
4-hour level: MA5 has crossed below MA10, indicating a significant weakening of short-term momentum. But MA30 remains below the price, meaning the main trend has not fully flipped bearish—there’s still room for recovery.
Daily level: After a continuous rebound, a volume-backed medium bearish candle appears, and the 80k level is broken through by the body. RSI plummets from a strong zone to 31.2, approaching the oversold line (30); MACD shows signs of a death cross at high levels. If the price cannot recover above $80,600 within the next 24-48 hours, the daily trend will shift to the bears.
On-chain signals: Breakthrough of two major cost bases, but the ceiling is near Bitcoin has successfully stabilized:
True Market Mean ≈ $78,200
Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ≈ $79,100
This means most participants are back in profit, which historically is associated with decreased selling pressure. But danger is approaching—Active Realized Price ≈ $85,200, known as the “Sell Pressure Wall,” with only about 5.5% room above. Additionally, daily realized losses still total $479 million, far above the stable cycle baseline of $200 million—selling pressure from cashing out has not truly diminished.
Capital flow: ETF frenzy buying, institutional “supply shock”
April ETF net inflow: $2.44 billion, a monthly record, totaling over $102 billion.
May 5–7: five consecutive days of net inflow totaling $169 million, the longest since July 2025.
Institutions have accumulated over 145k BTC since January, with corporate treasury holdings surpassing 818k BTC.
Miner costs are around $36,200, maintaining high gross margins even at the February low of $60k—hashpower remains solid.
Macro bullish-bearish battle: one side benefits from legislation, the other from geopolitical risks
Bullish: The US crypto market structure bill started review today (May 8), with a vote as early as next week, boosting expectations for clearer regulation.
Progress on Bitcoin reserve legislation, with the government holding over 328k BTC, possibly locked in permanently.
Bearish (currently dominant):
Repeated US-Iran geopolitical risks: Military escort plans “announced and paused,” but Iran still claims to be at war.
Crude oil plummeted 7%-8%, short-term collapse of Bitcoin’s “energy inflation hedge” logic.
Berkshire Hathaway continues to hoard cash, mainstream capital remains defensive.
2. Ethereum: The weak follower abandoned by funds
Price performance: When Bitcoin rises, it doesn’t; when Bitcoin falls, it’s worse
Current price: about $2,278–$2,294, down 2.33% daily, worse than Bitcoin’s decline.
Market share: only 10.41%, while Bitcoin’s share has surged to 60.34%.
ETH/BTC rate has fallen 4.37% over the past month, indicating institutional funds favor Bitcoin. On-chain research platform XWIN notes: Ethereum is currently a “supply response” market, passively driven by exchange net flows, unlike Bitcoin which is demand-driven.
Technical pattern: Complete breakdown, evident weakness
Daily: RSI shows “lower high” bearish divergence; MA20/30 are being tested for breakdown; three tests of 2,400 with long upper shadows, accumulating significant short selling.
4-hour: Converging triangle breaks downward; Bollinger middle band is pierced; MACD momentum turns negative; 1-hour bullish trendline (2,365) has been lost.
Capital flow: ETF reversal in one day + whale sell-offs
$423 million ETF turns negative in a day
In the first week of May, three days of net inflow totaling $260 million pushed ETH from $2,050 to $2,372. But on May 7, ETF saw $103.5 million net outflow, with Fidelity’s FETH losing $62.26 million and BlackRock’s ETH A losing $26.31 million—killing hopes of breaking 2,400.
Whales sell aggressively, with no mercy
Wallet linked to Jin, founder of BitForex, transferred 166,023 ETH (about $80k) to Binance. The same address sold 260k ETH in three batches in February, successfully depressing the price.
Paradigm Capital linked wallet transferred 11,615 ETH (about $27.29 million) to FalconX.
This week, two whales transferred a total of $423 million worth of ETH to exchanges, with a single-day net inflow of 160,900 ETH on May 6, crushing the sell pressure.
Coinb premium index has been negative for 10 consecutive days → US domestic institutional demand continues to retreat, retail buying is extremely weak.
News: Long-term narrative looks good, short-term is all about knife-edge bullishness (medium to long-term):
RWA tokenized US debt surpasses $8 billion, doubling in 6 months.
Staking rate rises to 31.4% (about 38.31 million ETH locked), supply continues to shrink.
Glamsterdam upgrade in 2026 (gas limit raised to 200 million) + Hegota hard fork, improving fundamentals.
Pectra upgrade (launched May 7): staking cap raised to 2,048 ETH.
Bearish (currently dominant):
Whale dumping + ETF reversal in one day → severe short-term capital drain.
Bitcoin dominance surpasses 61% → funds flow back from altcoins to BTC, ETH bears the brunt.
Rate cut expectations delayed to 2027, liquidity tightening.
US-Iran geopolitical shocks, energy inflation logic short-term collapse.
Vitalik publicly criticizes EU’s Digital Services Act → regulatory uncertainty in Europe.
🌀 Funding rate: The “Silent Bomb” in neutrality
The average funding rate across the network is +0.0005% (8-hour average), extremely close to neutral.
BN -0.0043% (bears slightly favored), OK +0.0058% (bulls slightly favored) → sharp disagreement between bulls and bears.
Open interest: about 14 million ETH, maintaining high levels, leverage not yet unwound.
24-hour total market liquidations: $356 million, with ETH longs accounting for $87 million, largest single liquidation of $10.51 million (bnETH contracts).
This extremely low-rate “tug-of-war” state, once a clear direction emerges, can easily lead to extreme one-sided moves—either violent short squeezes or long liquidations and crashes.