How to bet on the non-farm tonight? A 72.6% probability shows: the market has already given up on its fantasies

Brothers, tonight at 8:30, the U.S. April non-farm data will be released.

CME data shows: the market believes the probability that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year is as high as 72.6%.

Probability of a rate cut in June? 5.2%.

Got it?

Everyone has already stopped holding on to hope.

This time, the non-farm forecast is only expected to add 62,000 jobs.

Back then, anything below 100,000 was a “recession alert” turned up to the max.

But what about now? Even Fed official Logan himself said: “Adding 30,000 jobs per month is enough to balance it.”

Yes, you heard that right. 30,000.

The standard has been quietly lowered.

So tonight’s show— the focus isn’t really on the employment number at all.

There are three storylines; only one will hurt you

Scenario 1: Data ≈ 62,000, unemployment rate stays steady

The most boring plot.

The market has already been eating “bad news” like it’s food—U.S. stocks keep shaking, the dollar keeps staying strong, and you keep feeling anxious.

Nothing to bet on.

Scenario 2: Data far below 62,000 (for example, 30,000–40,000)

At this point, the word “recession” will trend.

But what truly makes you uncomfortable is: wages are still rising.

Stocks fall (killing profits) + inflation can’t be contained + bond market chaos = stagflation trading officially makes its debut.

Gold may first surge higher and then get pushed down—don’t rush to chase.

Scenario 3 (nuclear-level): Wage inflation exceeds 3.8%

No matter how bad the employment data is, as long as wages rise above that number—

The Federal Reserve must hold the line and go head-to-head with the economy against you.

No rate cuts, and they might even add more.

This isn’t a trading opportunity—this is a purge of the long positions.

Are you still guessing whether BTC will go up or down tonight?

Big money has already priced in “no rate cuts all year.”

The real danger isn’t that the non-farm data is bad, but that you think bad data will save the market.#BTC回调 $BTC $ETH