Tonight's Big Event! April Non-Farm Payroll Data Set to Be Announced

Tonight, the global financial markets are experiencing a super non-farm payroll night, as the US April non-farm employment data is about to be officially released. This key economic indicator will directly influence the overall trends of the dollar, gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Capital around the world is holding its breath, waiting for critical signals to land!
Looking back at the previous figure, in March, US non-farm employment increased by 178,000, significantly exceeding market expectations, demonstrating the employment market’s seasonal resilience; meanwhile, market expectations for April non-farm payrolls have sharply downgraded, with most predicting only 50,000-60,000 new jobs, indicating a clear cooling in employment data, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. This stark contrast between expectations and previous data suggests that tonight’s market will experience intense volatility.

From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, the current rate cut expectations remain firmly suppressed. Although April non-farm expectations have weakened significantly, inflation issues have not been fundamentally resolved, and the overall resilience of the employment market still exists. The core of the Fed’s monetary policy decision is to closely monitor the long-term weakening trend of employment data, rather than short-term monthly fluctuations. Even if this data falls short of expectations, it will be difficult for the Fed to easily signal rate cuts. The cycle of loose monetary policy remains distant, which is the core logic driving current market trading.

To help everyone accurately grasp the market, we have prepared in advance the three major scenario scripts for tonight’s non-farm night, clearly predicting asset trends:

- Data surprises significantly, with new jobs < 40,000: Employment data weakens thoroughly, the dollar index comes under pressure, gold, Nasdaq, and BTC will resonate and rally, ushering in a phase of bullish trend;
- Data meets expectations / performs relatively strong: Employment market resilience exceeds expectations, the dollar and US bonds launch a strong rebound, high-valuation growth assets and cryptocurrencies will face correction pressure, entering short-term consolidation;
- Weak employment + strong wage data: Intense battle between bulls and bears, markets fall into wide-range oscillation, various assets diverge in trend, and a clear unilateral trend is unlikely in the short term.

Non-farm payroll night is an extreme market window period, with intense volatility and many uncertainties. It is strictly forbidden to heavily load positions blindly or chase gains and sell at lows! Currently, we have completed our advance positioning and prepared dual-position strategies to respond, patiently waiting for the data to land, calmly seizing every market opportunity, and responding steadily to market fluctuations! $BTC ‌ $ETH