5.8 Xin Xin Crude Oil Strategy Analysis

Recently, the US and Iran are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, and the shipping outlook through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to improve, directly erasing the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil, leading to a single-day crash of over 12% in international crude oil prices. The easing of the situation has completely broken the previous safe-haven long logic, and market sentiment has quickly shifted to bearish, with short-term selling pressure being released in full.

Just before the plunge, a large mysterious sell order appeared precisely, and after that, significant profits were made, and such precise operations have occurred multiple times, increasing market concerns about information manipulation. Capital following the trend to escape further amplifies the volatility of the shipping market, and crude oil will maintain a weak downward trend in the short term, with limited rebound strength.

Overall, the market trend remains weak in the short term due to geopolitical news and capital influence; in the medium term, the US-Iran agreement still has uncertainties, and geopolitical conflicts have not been fully resolved. Coupled with the delayed recovery of shipping supply chains, oil prices will not continue to fall sharply on a single side, and will later enter a wide-range oscillation and rebound pattern.

Trading Suggestions:
Enter the market in the 90–92 range in batches, focusing on low positions.
Stop-loss at 87.5; if this level is broken effectively, abandon the long position. The first target is a rebound to 98–100 with strong resistance, reduce positions and tighten stops. The second target is 102–104.
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