Recently, when I look at the “brand narratives” behind projects like PFPs and memberships, the blunt truth is there are only two routes: keep people around for the long term, or churn up attention in the short term. The moment rate-cut expectations show up, talk about the U.S. Dollar Index and risk assets moving in lockstep—rising and falling together—heats up again. Once the mood kicks in, a lot of membership cards/passports naturally ride the wave to get a burst of attention, but that excitement fades just as quickly.

My own bookkeeping is pretty crude: how much you can borrow, what the collateral-to-loan (LTV) ratio is, how far the liquidation threshold is from the floor price… Later, I realized the most dangerous part isn’t the model—it’s that once the community loosens up, nobody is willing to give you “bottom-price credit.” So I now care more about projects that can continuously offer holders rights that can actually be redeemed, even if it’s slower. If it’s just a pipe dream built on co-branded collabs plus airdrops, the short-term thrill is over and you basically end up with nothing but pictures. Either way, I’ll keep leverage lower and not treat emotions like cash flow.