‍#Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $80k

Trump's suspension of the "Freedom Plan" is likely temporary, but I estimate it could last for several weeks until the Strait of Hormuz blockade is reopened or Iran signals flexibility in the Omani talks. Oil prices remain highly volatile; I estimate Brent crude prices will range between $90-150 depending on how long the disruptions last. Bitcoin and other risky assets face short-term downward pressure.
How Long Could the Pause Last?
Freedom Plan suspension: Trump suspended the plan citing Pakistan-led talks, but the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place. I expect the pause will last until credible progress is made in negotiations or shipping routes are reopened.
Risk factors: Iran has demonstrated its capacity to attack oil infrastructure; any escalation could extend the suspension. Some estimates suggest that meaningful normalization could take weeks or even months.
Iran insists on its right to enrich oil and rejects "forced negotiations." Officials emphasize unity and resistance against concessions.
Oman's mediation had previously secured an agreement that Iran would not stockpile enriched products; this is a potential breakthrough. However, Tehran continues to demand recognition of its enrichment rights.
Cautious diplomacy is expected—Iran may only soften its stance if the lifting of sanctions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are guaranteed.
Oil prices will likely remain above $90 in the near term, with upside risk toward $150 if Hormuz remains blocked.

Bitcoin & Risky Assets

Bitcoin near $80k: Short-term forecasts show downside toward $70k–$65k in the next month before stabilizing around $78k for the year.

Bitcoin’s long-term volatility is declining, but its correlation with global risk appetite is rising. It now behaves more like a risk-on asset tied to macro shocks.

Risk assets: Equities and crypto remain vulnerable to oil-driven inflation shocks and geopolitical risk.

Trading Strategy

Oil: Consider hedging exposure. Analysts suggest relative trades (long WTI vs short Brent) due to Hormuz-specific disruptions.

Bitcoin: Expect near-term pullbacks; accumulation may be more favorable after volatility subsides.

Risk assets: Maintain defensive positioning—energy equities and commodities may outperform while tech and crypto remain volatile.
I would primarily focus on oil strategies because they affect everything, but if your portfolio is trending towards Bitcoin, you should immediately pay attention to technical analysis.

Support & resistance zones: Identifying key levels around $78k, $72k, and $65k where buyers may step in.

Key Support & Resistance

Resistance: $80k–$82k is the current ceiling. A clean break above with volume could open the path toward $90k.

Support: $78k is the first line, then $72k and $65k as deeper levels where buyers historically step in.

Trend Indicators

50-day moving average: Watching if price stays above it—signals short-term bullish momentum.

200-day day moving average: Still trending upward, confirming long-term strength. A cross below would be a bearish warning.

Price hugging the upper band suggests overextension; a pullback toward the midline would be healthy.

Elevated, meaning swings of $3k–$5k in a single session are possible.

Market Sentiment

Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and oil has risen—acting more like a risk-on asset. If oil spikes further, Bitcoin may see short-term downside.
‍$BTC