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#Gate广场五月交易分享 #BTC回调 The risk of Bitcoin topping out is increasing, for the following reasons:
1. Leverage risk
1. The total network Open Interest (OI) / Market Cap ratio is the most classic leverage risk indicator, normally between 2%–3.5%. Exceeding 3.5% indicates high risk and a higher likelihood of liquidation. Today's value is 3.8%.
2. Bitcoin: The Estimated Leverage Ratio (a metric for estimated leverage) increases → the more aggressive the leverage use, the higher the market risk (small fluctuations can easily trigger liquidations). High leverage zone (be cautious): > 0.25 – 0.30, and yesterday this value reached 0.26, the same as at the market top during the bull run.
2. Has already reached the extreme position at the upper boundary of the pattern
The market has already reached the upper boundary of the pattern. If it cannot break through with volume, the risk of a top increases.
3. Percentage of profit at the time of sale
The 7-day moving average of the percentage of profit at the time of sale has reached a historical high, indicating that short-term profit-taking is too high, which puts selling pressure on profits. This often corresponds to a short-term top in BTC price.
4. Futures trend
When BTC briefly breaks above 82,000, the proportion of large bullish sell-offs surges to 39.2%, indicating that major players are cautious about the subsequent rise.
1. Leverage risk
1. The total network Open Interest (OI) / Market Cap ratio is the most classic leverage risk indicator, normally between 2%–3.5%. Exceeding 3.5% indicates high risk, prone to liquidation. Today's value is 3.8%.
2. Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio (a metric for estimated leverage) the higher the value → the more aggressive the leverage use, and the higher the market risk (small fluctuations can easily trigger liquidations). High leverage zone (beware): > 0.25 – 0.30, yesterday this value reached 0.26, the same as at the market top during the bull run.
2. Has already reached the extreme position at the upper boundary of the pattern
The market has already reached the upper boundary of the pattern. If it cannot break through with volume, the risk of a top increases.
3. Percentage of profits at the time of sale
The 7-day moving average of the percentage of profits at the time of sale has reached a historical high, indicating that short-term profit-taking is too high, putting selling pressure on profits. This often corresponds to short-term tops in BTC price.
4. Futures trend
When BTC briefly breaks above 82,000, the proportion of large bullish sell-offs surges to 39.2%, indicating that major players are cautious about the subsequent rise.