Counterfeit market continues, LAB surges 24 times, can it become the next RAVE?

News:
The US and Iran have reached a consensus on gradually opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing the blockade. On May 7, according to Saudi media Alhadath and Arab TV: sources say that the US and Iran have agreed on a phased opening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing the blockade, and in the next few hours, a breakthrough in the situation of trapped ships in the strait is expected. International oil prices briefly plummeted, with WTI crude oil falling over 3% intraday, and Brent crude dropping nearly 3%.
On May 7, U.S. President Donald Trump stated local time on May 6 that the US and Iran had conducted “very productive” talks in the past 24 hours, and “it’s very likely” an agreement will be reached in the end. Trump said, “It’s very likely” that an agreement will be reached with Iran after the latest round of talks. He stated that an agreement will eventually be made but without setting a deadline. Trump also said Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons. Iran has not responded to this yet.
The US-Iran permanent ceasefire agreement seems to be getting closer. If an agreement is reached in May, the crypto market will see its biggest rally this year, and this will also be the biggest positive news of the year.
Let’s look at the market sentiment on social media: Bitcoin’s social sentiment has significantly warmed along with recent price rebounds, with a long-short average ratio reaching 1.37:1.00, the highest level among the group this year. This indicates that as Bitcoin re-breaks the $80k mark and continues upward, traders are becoming increasingly optimistic. After weeks of uncertainty caused by macroeconomic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and several security incidents related to cryptocurrencies, retail investors are once again strongly inclined to expect further gains. However, historically, a sharp rise in bullish sentiment often serves as a warning signal rather than a direct buy signal, as markets tend to move contrary to public expectations. Now that optimism has reached a multi-month high, everyone should be cautious of potential intense volatility.
Legendary economist warns: US recession almost inevitable, US stocks may plummet 30%. On May 7, legendary economist and former Merrill Lynch chief strategist Gary Shilling believes there is little to stop the US economy from falling into recession this year. In an interview with Business Insider, Shilling gave a pessimistic outlook on the market and economic prospects. He sees ongoing vulnerabilities across multiple sectors of the US economy, making a recession almost unavoidable this year. He also predicts that with valuations reaching dizzying levels, US stocks could undergo a significant correction. Shilling said he believes the S&P 500 could ultimately fall by as much as 30%, with bear market declines possibly arriving before the end of the year.
If US stocks experience a sharp correction, it would be a catastrophic blow to global financial markets. Although US stocks are currently at historic highs, a major correction in the short term is unlikely; it’s more probable in the second half of the year. Therefore, there’s no need to worry too much about a stock market crash dragging down cryptocurrencies in May.
Now, let’s look at the market:
Bitcoin reached $82,800 yesterday before starting to retrace. Currently, on the daily chart, the short-term downtrend is quite clear. It’s worth noting that this short-term correction does not mean the end of the May rally; on the contrary, after the correction, the upward trend will continue. However, before the US-Iran ceasefire positive news comes out, the market is likely to remain volatile and consolidating. Once positive news appears, the rally will resume strongly. Overall, the overall outlook for May remains bullish, with a target top of $85,000–$88,000.
Ethereum is currently around $2,330. Yesterday’s surge broke above $2,400 but stopped at $2,420, failing to break the short-term top range of $2,465, then retraced for consolidation. The trend basically confirms what I mentioned in my previous article: if the 4-hour chart cannot stabilize above $2,320, it will fall below $2,300 toward the strong support at $2,265. Yesterday’s rally was quite unfortunate; if the top range had been broken, Ethereum’s price would likely have moved toward $2,500–$2,600 today.
Mainstream coins,
ZEC has also been rising steadily for a week, with two consecutive days of explosive growth on the 5th and 6th, from 350 to 607, a 70% increase in a week. I also mentioned in my April 26 article that as long as the market stabilizes, ZEC still has significant upside potential. OP and ARB have also risen over 10% in the past two days, currently at around 0.14 and 0.12 respectively. These two L2s are leaders; I’ve mentioned many times before that buying below 0.1 is a good entry point. The rebound has now exceeded 25%. AR has also surged from around 1.9 to about 2.4 recently, still with room to grow. UNI has also risen slightly recently; the market has not really started yet, but it’s coming. Expect a rally in May.
Altcoins: The hottest one remains LAB, which surged directly to 4.9 today, with a market cap surpassing one billion dollars. This coin has been rising since April 4 and has already increased 24 times. The big players have strong capacity, setting up a big picture, somewhat comparable to RAVE and PIPPIN. However, RAVE’s funding rates are negative, meaning that short positions pay a fee every hour, even if the price stays the same, gradually consuming the principal.
LAB’s current funding rate is positive, which attracts arbitrage traders: the big players buy spot, short the futures, and earn funding every four hours. This stabilizes profits and can keep pushing the price higher, creating a short squeeze.
LAB has surged over 20 times; retail traders at high levels are mostly long, with most longs opened by big players. They have paid a lot in funding fees. Recently, LAB’s trading volume has ranked among the top on major exchanges, which is a significant fee drain. It’s safe to say that the recent short squeeze has become a bullish force. The big players have spent a lot to pump the market, and it’s easy to imagine that the subsequent dump will be fierce. After all, no big player does charity; they will definitely recover their principal plus profits. Let’s wait and see.
Here, I remind everyone again: the LAB market is out of control. As long as the short sellers keep pushing, the price will continue to rise sharply. Doubling the market cap again is very normal. But be aware that the short positions might be used by the big players to lure more longs. Once retail traders chase longs, a sharp dump could be imminent. LAB has now become a slaughterhouse—regardless of long or short, anyone who enters is at risk. Retail investors should stay far away and wait for a deep dump to reduce the risk of a rebound. The chances of winning will be much higher then.
$LAB