Recently, I was reviewing some key concepts to better understand market risks, and I came across the black swan theory again. It's interesting how Nassim Nicholas Taleb managed to explain in his book something we've all experienced in crypto but don't know how to name.

Basically, the meaning of a black swan is simple: extremely rare and unpredictable events that no one sees coming, but when they happen, they cause a huge impact. The fascinating part is that traditional risk models can't capture them because they are based on historical data, and well, if something has never happened before, how can you predict it?

The name has an interesting story. In ancient times, Europeans were convinced that all swans were white, so they believed that black swans were literally impossible. Until they discovered one in Australia, and boom, the whole theory was shattered. That's why Taleb chose that name for his concept: because it perfectly captures the idea of something that breaks all your expectations.

In crypto, we live surrounded by black swans applied to reality. An unexpected event happens, the market crashes, and afterward everyone says "Oh, I should have seen this coming." But the truth is, Taleb is right: when we face uncertainty, we tend to build narratives that make us believe we control the situation. In the real world, most changes are neither linear nor predictable.

The important thing is to recognize that these unknowns exist. We can't eliminate them, but we can be more aware that they exist. In trading, that means not risking everything on a single position and maintaining some humility about what we think we know.

Right now, there's quite a bit of movement in ETH and BTC, so it's a good time to remember these concepts. How do you position yourselves in the face of market uncertainty?