Big breaking news—new economic data has just been released! Let’s break down the key points clearly.

For the week ending May 2, the number of initial unemployment claims came in at 200k, below the market expectation of 205k, and the prior figure was revised upward to 190k.

Many newcomers only see the positive employment data and worry that the Federal Reserve won’t start cutting rates. But we should look at it rationally and dialectically: this data confirms that the labor market remains strong, so concerns about a short-term economic recession can be put on hold; however, it also puts the Fed in a dilemma—since the economic fundamentals haven’t weakened, if inflation rises again, the bar for future rate cuts will only be raised further.

The market is currently in a period of confusion: the economy isn’t weak enough for a sharp downturn, and it’s nowhere near the point where a restart of rate hikes is necessary.

When it comes to the crypto space, the tug-of-war in the macro backdrop matters far more than simply watching technical K-line charts. As long as employment data doesn’t suddenly drop significantly, the Fed will have the confidence to maintain a high-interest-rate environment and continue to suppress various risk assets; but once the market starts pricing in rate-cut expectations ahead of time, incremental capital will flow back into the crypto track.

Next, don’t just stare at the K-line chart—make sure to keep up with changes in the macro trend and grasp the big-cycle momentum.$BTC $ETH #BTC回调