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SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240904): Continuous Decline
Along with recent bearish sentiment, Bitcoin has been underperforming since last night during the US trading session, dropping about 2.5% before 10 o’clock. The Asian session continued the decline, with a squeeze causing the price to fall to $55,606, then slightly rebounding to hover around $56,000. Implied volatility has shown a negative correlation with price intraday. After sharp intraday fluctuations, the term structure of BTC and ETH exhibits bull flattening, with ETH’s distant end showing a more pronounced lift, and the front end’s volatility levels displaying a clear inverted shape supported by intraday RV levels reaching as high as 85%.
Source: SignalPlus
The IV change at the front end of ETH is not only higher than BTC; from the numbers, ETH’s current IV is at a high level historically (above the 75th percentile), and the implied hedging costs reflected in the RV volatility cone also indicate a rich VPR, which may attract bearish volatility strategies, potentially weakening the upward tilt of the term structure in the short term.
Source: SignalPlus
Source: Deribit (as of September 4, 16:00 UTC+8)
Due to further price declines breaking recent lows, the front skew has retraced all of yesterday’s gains and returned to a low level. The vol premium at the tail ends of various maturities has also been set higher, with the most notable increase related to the US election on November 8 for BTC, along with rises in the subsequent two expiry dates. ETH’s year-end (December 27) convexity remains at a local high, rising to 3.53%.
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew
Source: SignalPlus, Fly
From the trading activity, BTC’s trading directions are relatively balanced. The price decline on one hand reminds traders to set up protection for extreme scenarios (such as November 29 - $35,000 put, 500 BTC long), while also providing cheaper opportunities for bullish strategies for those who remain optimistic, such as a September 27 $63,000 vs. $65,000 long call spread (200 BTC per leg).
Source: SignalPlus, Block Trade