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Past 24h recap:
Oil falling on U.S.-Iran de-escalation hopes was the main macro driver today. Lower oil eased the inflation narrative, pushed yields and the dollar lower, which directly supported equities and risk-assets.
At the same time, AMD guidance reinforced the AI-demand narrative, with semis leading the market higher again.
U.S. data stayed firm enough to support the soft-landing narrative, but inflation pressures did not disappear.
Europe stayed weak, but markets mostly ignored it because oil, yields, and AI momentum mattered more in the short-term.
The key now is whether oil stays contained. If geopolitical optimism fades and oil goes up again, the relief trade across equities, bonds, and the dollar can reverse quickly.