‍#Gate广场五月交易分享

‍#CLARITY法案推进受阻

The U.S. Senate is actively pushing the CLARITY Act toward a critical review on May 11. However, unexpectedly, the banking alliance "sets sights higher," and despite the agreement explicitly stating that stablecoins cannot pay interest to users, they launched a fierce opposition, worried that the "member rewards" clause in the bill could trigger a bank run. So, what will be the final fate of the bill? What impact will it have on the crypto world? Let Little财神 tell you.

👉Follow the Senate voting schedule; the bill is highly likely to pass

Currently, both parties are likely to see the bill implemented. On one hand, the core disputes have been resolved: Senator Thillis (Republican) and Osbrooks (Democrat) announced the final text of the stablecoin yield clause on May 1, clearly prohibiting passive income that resembles bank deposits, but allowing "activity-based rewards" linked to trading, transfers, staking, and other actual uses (such as trading rebates). This compromise balances the interests of the crypto industry and the banking sector, with giants like Cbase already expressing support.

On the other hand, political pressure and bipartisan consensus are jointly driving progress: Trump publicly urged the bill's passage and accused the banking industry of obstructing legislation, while the White House continues to mediate. Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers emphasize the urgency of the bill for maintaining America's financial competitiveness. Senator Lummis (Republican) even warned, "This is the last chance before 2030." Currently, the market prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of the bill passing in 2026 has surged from 46% to 70%, reflecting optimistic market expectations.

Next, close attention should be paid to the Senate voting schedule, because if committee votes are delayed until mid-May, the legislative process could stall as the election season approaches. The Senate's tight schedule and the banking industry's potential demand for amendments (such as strengthening reward regulations) could delay the vote.

👉What is the potential impact if the bill passes?

Regulatory landscape: Rebuilding responsibilities and compliance pathways

1. Clarification of regulatory division of responsibilities

SEC and CFTC division of authority: SEC oversees securities-like digital assets (such as tokenized securities), while CFTC leads regulation of digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum spot markets.

"Mature blockchain" certification mechanism: Highly decentralized public chains (like Bitcoin) can be classified as commodities, escaping SEC jurisdiction, and encouraging more projects to evolve toward decentralization.

Independent regulation of stablecoins: Banking institutions will oversee stablecoin issuance, prohibiting platforms from paying "deposit-like interest," but allowing incentives such as trading rebates.

2. Changes in the role of traditional financial institutions

Expansion of banking services: Banks can legally provide digital asset custody services, but face competition from non-bank entities (like Cbase).

Deposit protection battle: The bill prohibits passive income from stablecoins, easing the pressure of deposit outflows from banks, but "activity-based rewards" may still divert user funds.

Crypto market: reshuffling and opportunities

1. Reshaping market structure

Increased compliance thresholds for exchanges: Digital commodity exchanges will need to register with CFTC, meet capital and risk control requirements, leading to the淘汰 of small and medium platforms.

Solidification of stablecoin landscape: Leading compliant players like Circle (issuer of USDC) and Cbase benefit, with their stock prices already reflecting this, while smaller platforms relying on high-yield promotions face pressure.

2. DeFi and innovation exemptions

Development protection clauses: Non-custodial DeFi protocol developers (such as those writing code or building frontends) are exempt from SEC/CFTC registration but must comply with anti-fraud provisions.

"Activity-based rewards" become a new focus: Incentives like staking and trading rebates on-chain are moving toward compliance, promoting DeFi from high-yield financial products to practical use cases.

3. Accelerated institutional entry

Traditional finance seizes the market: JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and others have already entered the tokenization of US bonds and crypto trading; the bill's passage will further reduce compliance risks.

Explosion of real-world assets (RWA): Clear regulatory pathways for tokenized assets will promote the on-chain issuance of traditional assets like US bonds and real estate.

In summary: If the bill passes in May, institutional funds will flood in during the second half of 2026, further strengthening the correlation between the crypto market and US stocks. Close attention should be paid to the Senate committee vote on May 11 and subsequent Treasury Department regulations.

What do you think of Little财神's views? Feel free to leave comments below!