ETH May 7 Simplified Market Analysis

I. Overnight U.S. Stock & News Review
1. U.S. Stock Market
Last night, the U.S. stock market generally oscillated weakly, opening high then pulling back under pressure, with the Nasdaq closing slightly lower, tech stocks showing divergence, and market concerns about economic data and geopolitical risks increasing, leading to a decline in risk appetite.

2. News Face Comparison (Yesterday vs. Today)
Yesterday: U.S. stocks were weak + risk aversion increased, ETH surged then pulled back, reaching a high of 2354 before quickly dropping, with a low of 2311.
Today: U.S. stock sentiment transmission remains weak, the crypto market overall stabilized, ETH oscillated from lows for recovery, currently in a rebound phase but not yet fully reversing the short-term downtrend.

II. Today's ETH Market Breakdown (May 7)
1. Morning Trend
(1) Opening Price: 2327.71, oscillated upward after opening, current price around 2330, in a recovery rebound after a decline.
(2) Moving Averages: Price above MA5 but still below MA10/MA20, short-term bearish trend not fully reversed, rebound is a correction after a decline.
(3) MACD: Green bars continue to shorten, DIF line turning upward, bearish momentum weakening, rebound momentum strengthening.
(4) RSI: Recovered from lows to neutral zone, oversold signal corrected but not yet entered strong zone.

2. Key Support / Resistance Levels
Strong Resistance at 2340-2354 previous highs + MA20 pressure level, only a breakout can return to a bullish trend.
Weak Resistance at 2335-2340 MA10 pressure level, the first hurdle for short-term rebound.
First Support at 2320-2325 today's opening price + short-term MA support, a break below weakens the rebound trend.
Strong Support at 2311-2315 today's low + lower boundary of this correction, a break below opens downside space.

III. Entry/Exit & Position Management (Direct Use)
1. Long/Short Strategy
(1) Long (Rebound Correction): Stabilize at 2320-2325 during pullback (sign of stopping decline), try small long positions, stop loss at 2315, target 2335→2340.
(2) Short (Follow Short-term Trend): Encounter resistance at 2335-2340 during rebound, try small short positions, stop loss at 2345, target 2320→2315.
(3) Wait-and-See (Current Second-best Strategy): When in a narrow range of 2325-2335 with sideways oscillation, do not trade, wait for breakout or breakdown signals.

2. Position Management (Rebound Correction Market)
(1) Total position ≤25%, prioritize small positions for trial, avoid heavy positions chasing rebounds.
(2) Single trade position ≤10%, enter in batches, do not go all-in at once.
(3) Single trade loss not exceeding 1%-2% of total funds, strictly stop loss, do not hold losing positions.

IV. Today's Market Probability Judgment
(1) Sideways consolidation (2320-2340): 60% probability, rebound momentum weak, mostly digesting within range.
(2) Continued rebound (break 2340, target 2354): 25% probability, requires volume + BTC support, otherwise hard to break through.
(3) Second decline (break 2320, target 2311): 15% probability, support is relatively strong unless U.S. stocks continue to weaken.

⚠️ Risk Reminder: The following is for technical analysis reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please set stop losses when trading.