FOMC Decision Night: Hidden Reefs Amid BTC Bulls’ Wild Celebration

As U.S. stocks and BTC hit new stage highs in sync, the crypto market is entering a brand-new, institution-led landscape. Institutional funds continue to flow into the market through ETFs and futures channels, pushing pricing away from retail-sentiment-driven behavior and toward professional capital dominance. And the key test for all of this is pointing squarely to the FOMC interest rate decision in May 2025.

The market broadly expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, and CME data shows the probability is as high as 97%. BTC bulls have also placed their bets early, building large positions around $80,000. In the past 24 hours, futures open interest surged by roughly $189 million, and funding rates are showing a stage-wise bullish tilt. But historical data is sounding an alarm: after 8 FOMC decisions already held in 2025, BTC has fallen 7 times, with the “buy the expectation, sell the fact” pattern repeating again and again.

Meanwhile, U.S. ADP employment data added 109,000 new jobs, far above market expectations. The labor market’s resilience may reinforce the hawkish stance of the newly appointed chair, Wurz, casting a shadow over easing expectations. On the other hand, the Nikkei 225 has broken through 61,000 points to a new all-time high. The synchronized rise of global risk assets provides macro support for BTC, but the pullback pressure after the decision is still not something to be ignored. Institutional pre-positioning and the warning from historical patterns offset each other, and the chess match of this decision night may determine whether BTC can break through key resistance in the short term. Every market fluctuation will also serve as yet another validation of institutions’ pricing power. #BTC回调 #Gate广场五月交易分享 @Gate广场_Official