Recently, someone has been watching large on-chain transfers and unusual movements in exchange hot and cold wallets, shouting "Smart money is coming." I've been watching for a while and feel a bit numb... To put it simply, many times it's just a matter of changing positions or moving wallets, which has little to do with the time value in your or my options accounts.

Options are more straightforward: buyers are losing money every day due to time decay; if you do nothing, you lose, especially as expiration approaches; sellers are like collecting rent, with time value mainly feeding the seller, but don’t think it’s a guaranteed win—big volatility can turn small profits into big losses. My obsessive-compulsive conclusion is: don’t just focus on the direction, first figure out "how much is burned each day," and casually note down today’s theta.