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Bitcoin stabilizes above $80k! Is the "dampening effect" of geopolitical conflicts opening a new bull cycle?
On May 6th, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for 12 towns in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa region, requiring local residents to leave immediately. On the same day, U.S.-Iran negotiations were at a delicate stage. Trump previously said he would continue to impose a maritime blockade on Iran until Tehran agreed to a deal that would allay U.S. concerns over its nuclear program. He even said, "Blockades are more effective than bombing to some extent." But a few days later, he stated that the likelihood of reaching an agreement was "very high." However, we observe that regardless of how the Middle East situation worsens, Bitcoin, originally classified as a "risk asset," suddenly stops falling, indicating that the narrative effect of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict is "dampening." With continuous inflows of institutional funds, a new bull market may be brewing, seemingly ignoring negative news as it self-gestates and ferments.
The expansion of geopolitical conflicts will increase demand for safe-haven assets, which is basic logic. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum show some "safe-haven resilience," which differs from the narrative when the U.S.-Iran war just began, where they were simply categorized as "risk assets."
Their cross-border circulation is not controlled by a single government, making this attribute especially valuable under sanctions and blockades.
However, it is important to be cautious: if this conflict ultimately proves to be localized and does not trigger a larger war, the market may recover after a brief reaction.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating above $80,000, and the volatility caused by geopolitical shocks may be absorbed by larger macro narratives—such as the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations, U.S. inflation data, and Powell's statements—all of which divert market attention.
Another dimension worth paying attention to: oil prices!
The U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict has disrupted global oil trade, and the correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices is strengthening—high oil prices typically correspond to inflation expectations, which in turn influence Federal Reserve policy paths, thereby transmitting to the entire financial market.