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Bitcoin stabilizes above $80k! Is the "dampening effect" of geopolitical conflicts ushering in a new bull run?

On May 6th, the Israeli military issued evacuation orders for 12 towns in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa region, requiring residents to leave immediately. On the same day, U.S.-Iran negotiations were at a delicate juncture. Trump previously said he would continue to impose a maritime blockade on Iran until Tehran agreed to a deal that would allay U.S. concerns over its nuclear program. He even said, "Blockades are more effective than bombing to some extent." But a few days later, he stated that the likelihood of reaching an agreement was "very high." However, we observe that regardless of how the Middle East situation worsens, Bitcoin, originally classified as a "risk asset," suddenly stopped falling. This suggests that the narrative effect of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict is "dampening," and with ongoing institutional capital inflows, a new bull market may ignore negative news as it brews and ferments.

The expansion of geopolitical conflicts will likely increase demand for safe-haven assets—that's basic logic. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing some "safe-haven resilience," which differs from the narrative when the U.S.-Iran war just began, where they were simply categorized as "risk assets."

Their cross-border circulation is not controlled by a single government, making this attribute especially valuable under sanctions and blockade environments.

However, caution is needed: if this conflict ultimately proves to be localized and does not trigger a larger war, the market may recover after a brief reaction.

Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating above $80,000, and the volatility caused by geopolitical shocks may be being absorbed by larger macro narratives—such as the direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations, U.S. inflation data, and Powell's statements—all of which divert market attention.

Another dimension worth paying attention to: oil prices!

The U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict has already disrupted global oil trade, and the correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices is strengthening—high oil prices typically correspond to inflation expectations, which in turn influence the Federal Reserve's policy path, transmitting through the entire financial market.