Market Overview for May 7: The four major indices hit all-time highs; a one-page memo caused Brent to fall below $100

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: On this day, everyone is stepping on the gas in the same direction

Wednesday, an event on Wall Street that makes people want to take a photo to remember: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000, the four major indices, all closed at record highs on the same day.

The S&P 500 rose 1.46%, reaching 7,365.12 points to set a new record. The Nasdaq surged 2.02%, closing at 25,838.94 points, marking the first time it closed at this level in history. The Dow jumped 612.34 points (+1.24%), ending at 49,910.59 points, just 90 points shy of the 50,000 mark. The Russell 2000 increased 1.52% to 2,888.24, with small-cap stocks also reaching historic highs.

This day was like two pieces of wood being ignited simultaneously: one is “a page of paper,” and the other is AMD.

Let’s start with that page of paper.

Wednesday morning, Axios, citing two U.S. officials, reported that the White House believes it is close to reaching a “one-page memorandum” framework agreement with Iran to end the war, including suspending nuclear enrichment, halting hostilities, and setting a framework for more complex nuclear negotiations later. Brent crude oil plummeted over 11% within 30 minutes of the news release, briefly falling below $100 per barrel — the first time in ten weeks since the outbreak of war that Brent traded below $100. WTI touched a low of $91 intraday, finally closing at $91.54, down 10.5%. Brent ultimately closed at $99.12, down 9.8%, wiping out a week’s worth of war premium.

The oil price plunge gave the stock market an adrenaline shot. Inflation expectations cooled immediately, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping about 7 basis points to 4.35%, and market bets on a Fed rate hike in June quickly receded. A sentiment called “peace dividend” spread across trading floors, as those previously suppressed by high oil prices began to catch up collectively, with Russell 2000 even surpassing Nasdaq in daily gains.

However, Trump’s speech in the afternoon tempered some of the optimism: “This is a ‘maybe,’ a huge assumption — Iran will agree to our terms.” No denial of negotiations, but no confirmation of an agreement either. This is the space management Trump excels at: maintaining uncertainty, keeping the market in a state of hope and doubt, maximizing trading enthusiasm.

The energy sector declined over 4% that day, the only sector with a significant loss, standing out as a conspicuous red patch amid a sea of green on the heatmap. Oil companies’ losses that day were like an early celebration of the end of the war.

Chip parade: AMD ignites, SMCI assists, ARM still rising after close

If the “one page of paper” was the macro trigger of the day, AMD was the bomb dropped on the micro level.

After a 15% surge after hours the night before, AMD continued to rise on Wednesday, ending up 17.77%. CEO Su Zifeng appeared on CNBC, personally explaining why Q2 guidance was sharply raised: not because of accelerated demand for data center GPUs, but because Agentic AI (AI agents) has created explosive demand for server CPUs. She used the phrase “tremendous demand.” This is a new key term in the current AI narrative: the way AI agents consume computing power is completely different from traditional LLM inference; they require continuous operation and parallel execution, demanding CPUs rather than just GPUs. AMD happens to have the most ammunition in the CPU race.

Wedbush analysts put it more directly: “CPUs stole the headlines today.” This is the most profound industry signal in this earnings season: AI is no longer a Nvidia-only story; the spectrum of computing demand is broadening.

Supermicro (SMCI) soared 24.5% that day, as AI server manufacturer’s earnings exceeded expectations, with guidance significantly stronger than anticipated, forming a dual validation with AMD’s “software-defined hardware demand.” Nvidia gained 5.93%. Intel rose 4.22%, fueled by rumors that Apple might be using its chip manufacturing services. Over the past month, Intel’s stock jumped from $40 to $108, becoming the biggest comeback among chip stocks.

Corning (GLW) rose 17%, an interesting supporting role today. This century-old glass manufacturer announced a partnership with Nvidia to jointly build three advanced fiber optic manufacturing plants in North Carolina and Texas, increasing Corning’s fiber connectivity capacity in the U.S. tenfold and creating at least 3,000 new jobs. The physical infrastructure of AI data centers has penetrated down to fiber optics; Nvidia, which only sold GPUs two years ago, is now signing long-term manufacturing agreements with glass producers — a span worth recording.

ARM rose 13.6 intraday, and after releasing Q4 earnings after hours, beating on both revenue and profit, its stock further gained 8% after hours, continuing to rise at the market open today.

ARM’s architecture-based AGI CPU, designed specifically for data center Agentic AI workloads, has Meta and OpenAI as confirmed clients. It is transforming from a company that “licenses chip designs” into one that “manufactures chips itself.” This is a fundamental expansion of the business model, and the market is re-pricing it.

Disney (DIS) closed up 7.60%, the best performer among Dow components that day.

The new CEO Josh D’Amaro’s first earnings report pushed all key metrics over the finish line: revenue of $25.17 billion, up 7% year-over-year, beating expectations of $24.85 billion; adjusted EPS of $1.57, beating expectations of $1.50, up 8%. The streaming business’s operating profit margin broke 10% for the first time, reaching 10.6%, with operating profit soaring 88% YoY — a clear sign of Disney+ climbing out of the loss abyss. Theme parks and cruise lines also set quarterly revenue records.

D’Amaro also raised the full-year stock buyback target from $7 billion to $8 billion, and forecasted a 12% YoY growth in adjusted EPS for FY 2026, with continued double-digit growth in 2027. The market’s first impression of the new CEO is reflected in this 7.6%.

Oil and gold: Brent at $99, the real logic behind falling below three digits

Brent falling below $100 is the most symbolic price event in all the news today.

The figure itself may be subject to debate: from $126 to $99, is it real progress in negotiations, or just another emotional trade that can be reversed within 48 hours? Trump’s subsequent “big assumption” wording, and Iran’s foreign ministry statement that they are “evaluating and responding through Pakistan mediators,” suggest the framework agreement is not yet inked. 23,000 sailors remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Chevron CEO’s words from last week still echo: “Even if the strait reopens, normalizing supply will take months.”

But the $99 Brent and $126 Brent represent a $27 inflation pressure difference. That $27 equals whether airlines can remain profitable, whether the Fed will raise rates in June, and whether consumer confidence will rebound before summer. The market today chooses to believe it.

Gold rebounded strongly by 3.44% to $4,725.70, silver rose 6.3% to $78.19. This rally, seemingly contradictory to the oil price plunge, is based on a different logic: falling oil prices due to “peace coming,” meaning the Fed might no longer need to be hawkish, weakening the dollar, and giving gold room to rise. This is a market that feels intuitive and non-confrontational — a rare sight.

Cryptocurrency: $82,320, Bitcoin is climbing that line

On May 6, Bitcoin touched $82,320 in early trading, hovering at a high of $82,000–82,500 throughout the day.

This level is the most significant technical number in recent months: the 200-day moving average at about $82,228. Since the October 2025 all-time high, Bitcoin has never successfully closed above this line on a daily basis. Crossing it would confirm a trend reversal technically; failing to hold it would just be another attempt to be pushed back.

Wednesday’s plunge in oil prices changed all macro conditions for the crypto market: inflation expectations decline → Fed rate hike bets recede → dollar weakens → risk asset discount rates fall in tandem. Bitcoin’s position in this chain has shifted; it’s no longer struggling in a “high inflation, high interest” pressure cooker but is now on the starting line of the “peace dividend.”

Ethereum rose to $2,409 (+1.31%) the same day. The total global crypto market cap surged, and the fear/greed index quickly recovered from last week’s “fear” zone.

A subtle signal today worth noting: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in an interview, “If your moat is ‘our software is complex and others can’t write it,’ that moat is disappearing.” This comment is directed at the entire SaaS industry and explains why, after Claude’s Cowork platform launched in January this year, software stocks collectively declined. The advent of the AI agent era is rewriting not only chip demand curves but also the valuation logic of the entire software industry. Su Zifeng’s “Agentic AI-driven CPU demand” and Amodei’s “SaaS moats are disappearing” are two sides of the same coin.

Summary of today: All four major indices hit record highs, oil prices fell below $100, Bitcoin touched that line

On May 6, the market brought the best of the past two months to the table simultaneously.

US Stocks: S&P 500 closed at 7,365.12 (+1.46%), Nasdaq at 25,838.94 (+2.02%), Dow at 49,910.59 (+1.24%), Russell 2000 at 2,888.24 (+1.52%), all four indices hit all-time highs. AMD rose 17.77%, SMCI up 24.5%, Nvidia up 5.93%, Corning up 17%, Disney up 7.60%. The energy sector fell over 4%, the only losing sector. ADP private employment added 109k jobs in April, the highest in over a year.

Oil/Gold: Brent at $99.12 (-9.8%), WTI at $91.54 (-10.5%), first close below $100 since the war began. Driven by Axios’s exclusive report on the nearing US-Iran “one-page memorandum.” Gold rebounded 3.44% to $4,725.70, silver up 6.3%, as the market begins to normalize under peace expectations.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin touched $82,320 intraday, oscillating near the 200-day moving average ($82,228), the highest in three months. Ethereum at $2,409, global crypto market cap surged, fear/greed index quickly recovered.

Post-market ARM earnings: revenue and profit beat expectations, up 8% after hours, continuing to be realized at today’s market open.

The market now only cares about one question: Will that page really be signed?

If Iran and the US reach a written framework agreement within the next 48 to 72 hours, Brent could continue toward $90 or even $85, and US stocks could see a rebound. Bitcoin might successfully close above the 200-day moving average within May. If Trump’s “big assumption” fails and Iran rejects the nuclear enrichment terms, oil prices could rebound to $110 within 48 hours, and everything today would quickly turn into a reversed emotional trade.

At least today, history records it this way: the Dow lost 90 points to touch 50,000, Brent lost 99 cents to stay below $100, and Bitcoin is still $228 short of crossing the 200-day moving average. The market is waiting at all the most critical integer thresholds, all while waiting for a signature on a piece of paper.