In early April, I predicted that 95% of people would miss the entire round of this rally in 2026. This month, that view has been revised up to 99%. Because the overwhelming majority of the short positions cultivated in the middle of 10–2 months are in the mix, 80,000 (8w) is an important threshold—once it’s taken, it serves as a bridge between the past and the future: on the way up, you can reach 91,000–96,000; if it retreats, 74,000 can still be held. Many people won’t bottom-fish below 67,000, and even less so above 80,000. In the next few months, the swing highs will only keep getting higher, until the entire round of the rally is completely missed. Then, after chasing it above 100,000, and adding more once it’s above 120,000, even if the highest point reaches 150,000–180,000, the result is taking the risk of getting trapped at a high level just to fight for those last few thousand points of tail-end profit.

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