- Analysis: Bitcoin price could crash to $50,000 if the "most important" bear market test fails.

A new analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a "critical" resistance hurdle in the bear market.

- Key Points
It can be said that Bitcoin faces its most significant resistance battle at the $84,000 level.
The analysis warns that failure to regain the 200-day trend line opens the door to a drop to the lowest levels of $50,000.
The bullish support zone must hold in the event of a corrective phase.
Bitcoin faces a battle to avoid "continuing the downtrend cycle"
In a post on X on Wednesday, cryptocurrency investment firm TradingShot revealed the next key decision point for optimistic Bitcoin investors.

Bitcoin’s price movement continues to test the $82,000 level, according to data from TradingView, but the area around $84,000 will be crucial to restore support in the next phase.

A chart of the BTC/USD pair on an hourly basis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

TradingShot wrote: "Bitcoin is preparing to test its 200-day moving average, the most important resistance level in the downtrend, but has already entered the pivot zone formed from a previous low."

The attached chart compares the current price performance with the 2022 bear market, with the 200-day simple moving average in the middle.

At that time, the BTC/USD pair retested the 200-day simple moving average from below after initially losing it, but the recovery failed — resulting in a move to new lows on the macro level.

The analysis continues: "This is a familiar pattern formed by Bitcoin during downtrends, and it was clearly present during the 2022 bear cycle where these pivot zones formed from a previous low that was later tested as resistance."

A weekly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: TradingShot/X

If history repeats, TradingShot expects a significant correction, with a lower target of $50,000.

The report concludes that "a rejection now at the 'stepwise' pattern will confirm Bitcoin’s continued downtrend to $50,000, while a breakout would invalidate it."

As Cointelegraph also noted, the $50,000 zone has long been favored by traders who see the bear market continuing.

- Bitcoin Price Support Zone as the "Main Focus"
If the 200-day simple moving average is the resistance level to overcome, then the two trend lines just below the price are essential to keep as support, according to analysts.

The so-called bullish support zone, consisting of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, is near $78,000.

In some of its latest analyses on X, trading firm Cryptic Trades stated that the support zone should remain the "main focus."

They wrote on Wednesday alongside an illustrative chart: "I believe that as long as the price remains above this zone, and the bottom forms around April 2025 near $76,000, the broader market structure will remain intact."

The other key level to watch is the long-term support zone marked in purple around $84,000, where short-term rejection may occur.

BTCUSD
A daily chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: Cryptic Trades/X
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