#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin remains steady at $81k, and the derivatives market shows little sign of turbulence: Can the rally continue?

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin remains steady at $81k, and the derivatives market is uneventful: Can the rally continue?

Key points: Although on-chain activity and derivatives market indicators show insufficient trader participation, record-breaking net inflows into spot ETFs indicate strong institutional demand. The lack of leveraged long positions may actually provide momentum for further gains, as sellers will be forced to cover if Bitcoin continues to rise.
Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 7% over the past week, breaking above $81,000 for the first time in over three months. Despite the strong price performance, data shows a lack of investor optimism in the Bitcoin derivatives market, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally.
Bitcoin derivatives fail to reflect investor enthusiasm for $81,000
Macroeconomic factors and multiple on-chain indicators point to weakening demand. The two-month Bitcoin futures basis rate. On Tuesday, Bitcoin monthly futures traded at a 1% annualized premium (basis rate) over the spot market, well below the neutral threshold.
Typically, sellers require a 4% to 8% premium to compensate for funding costs. This cautious sentiment began forming in late January when Bitcoin traded at $90,000, which also partly explains the current market lack of enthusiasm. To confirm whether the issue is limited to the futures market, one should assess the demand balance between put and call options. Under neutral conditions, the trading premium between these instruments usually ranges from -6% to +6%. When professional traders worry about downside risk, the delta skew indicator rises above 6%.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin's delta skew indicator approached the neutral threshold of 6%, but remained slightly bearish. Whales and market makers do not seem overly concerned about an imminent crash, but bullish confidence has clearly stalled.
As Brent crude oil prices hover around $110, ongoing inflation concerns are suppressing traders' expectations for economic growth.
According to Cleveland Fed data, U.S. inflation expectations are approaching a 2.5% high over the past decade. Meanwhile, investors are demanding higher returns to hold Eurozone government bonds. Despite these inflation pressures, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index hit a new all-time high on Tuesday, indicating a broader risk appetite environment is forming.
Bitcoin on-chain activity declines, spot ETF accumulates heavily
Bitcoin may benefit from rising risk appetite, but weak on-chain indicators suggest retail demand is waning. Over the past three months, network daily transfer volume plummeted 54%, down to $4.1 billion. At the same time, the number of transfers is near its lowest level in over five years. While Bitcoin's price trend does not strictly depend on on-chain activity, these indicators serve as alternative references for public interest and adoption levels. Strategy's (MSTR US) paused adding to holdings before earnings, possibly sparking unnecessary concerns. Led by Michael Saylor, the company maintained an aggressive buying pace over the past four weeks. However, analysts expect that due to Bitcoin's accounting treatment based on market value, Strategy will report a quarterly net loss. Weak macroeconomic conditions and declining on-chain activity have negatively impacted the Bitcoin derivatives market, but US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.16 billion from Friday to Monday, indicating rising institutional demand.
Ultimately, the Bitcoin derivatives market's lack of demand for leveraged long positions may instead act as a catalyst for further gains.
As prices rise, short sellers may be forced to close positions at a loss, fueling additional upward momentum.