Summary and Macro Risk Alerts

Comprehensive Assessment
· Core variable ranking: ETF capital flows (institutional demand) > Federal Reserve leadership change and macro policies > Geopolitical developments
· Short-term direction: Bitcoin remains in a bullish dominance pattern above $82,000; Ethereum is approaching the $2,400 resistance, with a clear expectation of a rebound linked to other assets, but a breakout requires volume support, overall weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC exchange rate remains an important indicator to watch
· Medium-term expectation: If key resistance zones at $84,000-$85,000 can be effectively broken, Bitcoin may challenge the extended target of $87,000-$92,000; Ethereum needs to stabilize above $2,400-$2,460 before opening an upward channel toward $2,550-$2,800
⚠️ Core Risks to Watch in May
· Policy shift risk: The timing window for Kevin Warsh to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair (May 15), with a weak outlook for rate cuts throughout 2026, maintaining high interest rates will continue to exert macro pressure on crypto assets
· Halving cycle time window: Major historical turning points often occur around 750 days after halving, recent focus should be on potential pullback pressures before and after mid-May
· Long and short leverage risk: Currently, perpetual funding rates remain in negative territory (negative for several consecutive days), combined with open interest rising to high levels, indicating short positions are saturated. If prices break through the critical resistance zone of $80,000-$84,000, a large-scale short squeeze could be triggered, beware of volatile swings caused by leveraged liquidations.
$BTC ‌
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