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THE RUSSELL 2000 JUST GAVE THE SAME SIGNAL THAT TRIGGERED EVERY MAJOR CRYPTO BULL RUN IN THE PAST.
The Russell 2000 just broke out after consolidating for 64 months. That's the longest base in over 20 years. And it matters now more than ever.
Q4 2012: Russell breaks out. 2013 crypto bull run follows.
Q4 2016: Russell breaks out. 2017 crypto bull run follows.
Q4 2020: Russell breaks out. 2021 crypto bull run follows.
Q1 2026: Russell breaks out after a 64-month base. 17 months longer than any of the previous three.
The Russell 2000 is a leading indicator of liquidity and risk appetite. When small caps rally, it means capital is flowing to risk-on assets. And no asset class is more risk-on than crypto.
The length of this consolidation matters. It means liquidity was constrained for an unusually long time. April's 11% breakout is a signal that conditions have materially changed. This breakout has been building for a long time.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI confirms the liquidity expansion. Crypto cycles have historically started 4-5 months after the PMI bottoms. It bottomed in June 2023 and just hit a 3.5 year high at 52.7.
Small caps and the PMI are sending the same message. Liquidity is rising and risk appetite is returning. The setup for a new crypto cycle is here.
And given the depth of the consolidation, the coming bull run could be equally powerful.
Past performance is never a guarantee of future results. But the Russell 2000 has a strong track record of calling major shifts in the liquidity cycle. And liquidity is the fuel that powers crypto.
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