Ceasefire eases supply concerns, Goldman Sachs lowers Q2 oil price forecast but warns that extreme risks still exist

ME News Report, April 9 (UTC+8), after the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for Q2 2026: Brent crude oil from $99 to $90 per barrel, WTI crude oil from $91 to $87 per barrel. The bank stated that the ceasefire has driven risk premiums to fall back, combined with the gradual recovery of the Hormuz Strait shipping volume, which is the main reason for the downward revision. As a result, Brent crude once dropped about 11% this Monday. However, Goldman Sachs maintained its oil price forecast for the second half of the year and emphasized that supply-side uncertainties remain high: if Middle Eastern supply disruptions persist and production losses worsen, in an extreme scenario, Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel. Additionally, Goldman Sachs simultaneously lowered its European TTF natural gas price forecast to €50 per megawatt-hour but warned that if LNG transportation is hindered, gas prices could rebound above €75. Overall, the ceasefire temporarily alleviates market tension, but energy markets remain dominated by geopolitical factors in the medium to long term, with significant volatility risks still present. (Source: BlockBeats)