Market Outlook

Breakthrough above 81, approaching 83-84, next steps plan
These days, updates have decreased due to going out. But the market is operating according to previous views
First, I repeatedly emphasized before 81 that it would at least reach 81, and the reason is simple: after touching the lower boundary of the CME gap, there’s no reason not to fill it.
By analyzing and summarizing the chart since BTC1! has been traded on CME, this conclusion can be reached
Before touching 81, I also mentioned that if 81 is reached and not rejected immediately, it will test the resistance zone of 83-84. I do not short
Currently, the market is following the most bullish scenario, reaching 82,800 (close to 83)
Next outlook
First, it can be seen that above 81, most altcoins followed the rise yesterday and today. Many previously suppressed coins, such as $SOL $SUI , have finally risen. This gives a “last dance” feeling.
There is also a small probability that “rotation is just beginning.”
The launch of altcoins is about a 70:30 chance of being the last dance or just the beginning
The key depends on the reaction in the 83-84 zone. If Bitcoin can break through 84 without resistance, risk appetite for altcoins will continue to return.
SOL’s rebound will go to around 117, ETH around 2900
I also mentioned that the probability of the last dance is higher, meaning Bitcoin is more likely to top out in the 83-84 range and then fall, which aligns with the bear market theme
If it breaks through the 83-84 zone, Bitcoin will officially enter (accept) the previous consolidation range, i.e., 84-97.
This means the real resistance above is around 97
If the breakout fails, a reasonable correction zone is around 74
Success or failure of the breakout depends on whether the 4H level can hold above 84 continuously; if yes, it indicates a successful breakout.
Another question from a family member: does breaking above 84 mean the bear market is ending early?
I believe that breaking above 84 indicates an expansion of the rebound level, but it does not necessarily mean the bear market is over; trading still carries risks.
On the other hand, since Trump took office, the performance of altcoins has seemed to be in a long-term bear market, diverging from Bitcoin.
Therefore, for family members mainly trading altcoins, assuming they are in a long-term bear market to trade is also fine (even if Bitcoin rises).
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