Ceasefire eases supply concerns, Goldman Sachs lowers Q2 oil price forecast but warns that extreme risks still exist

ME News report: On April 9 (UTC+8), after the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for Q2 2026. Brent crude fell from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel. The bank said the ceasefire drove the risk premium to fall back, and that—together with the gradual recovery of shipping volumes through the Hormuz Strait—was the main reason for the cut. As a result, Brent crude once fell by about 11% this Monday. However, Goldman Sachs kept its second-half oil price forecast unchanged and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: if the Middle East’s supply disruption continues and production losses intensify, in an extreme scenario, Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel. In addition, Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for European TTF natural gas prices to €50 per megawatt-hour, but warned that if LNG transportation is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to above €75. Overall, the ceasefire will ease market tensions in the short term, but in the medium to long term, energy markets remain dominated by geopolitical factors, and volatility risks remain significant. (Source: BlockBeats)