Oil prices fell back somewhat last night (WTI closed at $102.68 per barrel), but the bigger concern is that the Strait of Hormuz has still not truly reopened for navigation to this day, and the geopolitical risk premium has not eased one bit. The daily number of ships transiting has dropped sharply from 135 vessels before the conflict to nearly zero; hundreds of oil tankers and LNG carriers are stranded along both sides of the Persian Gulf, and this most critical artery in the global oil supply system is almost permanently clogged.

Over the past nine weeks, the United States has cumulatively exported more than 250 million barrels of crude oil to Asia, surpassing Saudi Arabia to retake the position of the world’s largest exporter. But this last supply buffer is now nearing its limit: the surge in exports is accelerating the drawdown of U.S. domestic inventories, with the decline already reaching 52 million barrels within four weeks. Greater uncertainty comes from the political front as well: the U.S. military launched so-called “escort operations,” and Iran immediately retaliated with missiles; Trump and Iran’s new top leader have refused to compromise with one another, leaving the U.S.-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz in a deadlock of “neither war nor peace.”

The true suspense in the market has never been short-term price fluctuations, but rather when the fate of the Strait of Hormuz will be rewritten.
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