5.6 Bitcoin Midday Analysis: Highs Moving Lower, “Kunkou” Taking Control

After Bitcoin formed a pointed top at 81716, it has entered a typical pattern of stalling at high levels and then pulling back. During the push higher, there was no capital follow-through with increased volume—this is a false lift meant to lure traders in. During the pullback, the highs keep stepping down, and rebounds lack strength. The bearish candlestick body continues to expand; the “do-tou” momentum has been completely broken. In the short term, downside momentum is still being released continuously.

Considering the current market structure, 81700-82000 is a dense area of earlier trapped positions. Institutional funds are unwilling to “take the bag” there, and the sell pressure above behaves like a wall. At the same time, the short-cycle MACD has already formed a death cross at high levels. Price and momentum indicators are forming a top divergence (top divergence between price and momentum). Combined with overheated chasing sentiment and hidden differences in fund positioning, the essence of this rebound is more like a high-level “do-tou” trap rather than a signal that a bull market is restarting.

Next, Bitcoin’s key support lies at 80000-80500. Once it breaks, the upward structure will be completely damaged, and downside room will open toward the 77500-78000 range. Meanwhile, 81300-81500 above has turned into a strong resistance zone. As long as price cannot get back above it, any rebound will be an opportunity for the bears to add to shorts. Currently, the bulls have no advantage, and a bearish trend is gradually becoming established.

Trading Suggestions:
Go for “do-tou” in the 81700-82000 range. First target: 80500-80300. Second target: 79500-79000. With market volatility increasing, be sure to strictly use stop-losses and control position size.
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