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5.6 Crude Oil Market Outlook by Shiyuan
Wednesday morning, crude oil pulled back from high levels for correction. WTI crude traded near $100.8 per barrel, Brent crude around $108.4 per barrel, with a nearly 4% decline overnight, indicating increased short-term bearish momentum.
US-Iran tensions eased: Trump announced a pause in the Strait of Hormuz escort plan, Iran agreed to open the strait, and market concerns over supply disruptions diminished, with profit-taking at high levels pushing oil prices lower.
API crude oil inventories decreased significantly, but this was offset by geopolitical easing, failing to provide effective support. Middle East risk premiums declined, combined with potential OPEC+ production increase expectations, leading oil prices to revert to fundamentals of supply and demand.
Continuous decline, breaking key support levels, RSI trending downward, clear bearish arrangement, opening downside space. Weak rebound, downward pressure, short-term resistance lowered, bearish trend clear. Resistance at 101.5, 103.0; support at 99.5, 98.0. Currently, crude oil is in a high-level correction phase dominated by bears; rebounds are opportunities to short.
Trading suggestions:
1. Short on rebounds at 101.5-102.0, stop loss at 103.5, target 99.5-98.0.
2. Short near 103.0 on rebound, stop loss at 104.5, target 99.5, break below to 97.0.
3. If it stabilizes above 103.5, follow the fall with a short-term long, stop loss at 102.0, target 105.0.
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