What did the crypto community hear during Powell's final press conference?

Writing: Clow

April 29, no change in interest rates.

The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. No rate cuts, no hikes, the outcome is completely expected.

But what the market hears is not “holding steady.”

What it hears is: inflation is still high, oil prices are still volatile, tariff impacts haven’t fully dissipated, Fed officials are starting to argue, and Powell doesn’t plan to step down immediately.

This is Powell’s last press conference as chair, and also the first time the market gets a clear look at this mess before Kevin Waugh takes over.

For the crypto world, the real issue isn’t whether Powell leaves or stays.

It’s whether money is still cheap or not.

Interest rates unchanged, money first flows out

Before the meeting, Bitcoin was still hovering around $77k. Not strong, not weak; after all, in early April, it was still around $65k.

The market was expecting a familiar script: the Fed pauses first, then leaves room for rate cuts, stocks and crypto assets continue to rise. But the door isn’t closed, though security guards are standing at the entrance.

Powell said that monetary policy has no preset path, and upcoming decisions depend on data, outlook, and risk balance. In plain language: don’t rush to price in rate cuts.

Spot Bitcoin ETF funds responded first.

According to SoSoValue data, on April 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $89.6754 million. By April 29, Eastern Time, net outflows expanded to about $138 million, marking the third consecutive day of outflows.

This isn’t an epic crash, but the signal is clear: institutions are reluctant to leverage further during the Fed transition, inflation rebound, and oil price surges.

Such funds rarely turn around completely on a single statement, but they will slow down first. Especially when macro signals are still unclear, buying less is already a stance.

Bitcoin holds the $75k level, Ethereum fluctuates around $2,300. Prices don’t seem to be collapsing yet, but funds are already pulling back.

Four dissenting votes, more embarrassing than a rate hike pause

The outcome of this meeting was simply: keep rates steady.

8 votes in favor, 4 against. Stephen Miran wanted an immediate 25 basis point rate cut; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan supported holding rates steady but opposed continuing to hint at easing in the statement.

One person thought the cut was too slow, three thought the language was too soft. This isn’t hawks versus doves, but everyone agrees to hold off for now, yet they’re already arguing over where the next punch should land.

AP reported this was the largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. In other words, even before Waugh officially takes the chair, the committee is already divided.

For stocks and crypto assets, this is more troublesome than simply “not cutting rates.” Now, rates are held steady, inflation is rising, and officials’ opinions are still divided. Every inflation and employment report could rewrite market expectations.

What markets fear most isn’t hawks or doves, but the possibility that someone might suddenly change the script at the next meeting.

Crypto markets excel at grand narratives, but prices often only respond to liquidity. When liquidity paths turn foggy, even the most beautiful stories get discounted first.

Powell’s real cold water is inflation

The US unemployment rate in March was 4.3%, little change; the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator was 3.5% year-over-year, core inflation 3.2%. Both inflation figures remain above the Fed’s 2% target.

On one side, Middle East conflicts push up global oil prices; on the other, tariffs continue to pass through to goods prices. Powell said the Fed has assumed tariffs would cause a one-time price increase that would fade over time, but the next two quarters must show that it really happens.

His message is straightforward: theoretically, central banks can penetrate short-term oil shocks; in reality, oil shocks haven’t fully passed, and inflation has been above target for years, so now is not the time to blindly cut rates.

This statement hits the crypto world as another version:

Don’t interpret “pause on rate hikes” as “immediate easing.”

In recent years, whenever macro pain hit, markets started fantasizing about rate cuts; stocks and crypto fell, and everyone hoped the Fed would come to rescue. But this time, inflation is driven by oil prices and tariffs, and rate cuts could either save asset prices or reignite inflation expectations.

So, they can only wait. Waiting itself is a form of punishment for highly leveraged markets. As long as real interest rates stay high, holding costs remain.

For crypto, this is worse than just “not cutting rates” because it’s not short-term pain but a tightening of the water pipe that bulls most want to open.

Waugh is not a crypto savior

Many interpret Kevin Waugh’s potential succession as a bullish signal for crypto markets. There’s some basis: he’s considered more attuned to market signals and has viewed Bitcoin as an important asset and policy indicator. He opposed the Fed directly issuing digital dollars to the public in a Senate hearing, which isn’t bad news for private stablecoins.

But if you think Waugh will immediately open champagne for crypto, think again.

If Waugh takes over, he inherits not a new machine but a dashboard still smoking: inflation remains high, oil prices are volatile, tariffs haven’t fully dissipated, and four dissenting votes are on the table.

More importantly, Powell hasn’t truly left.

He explicitly said that after his term ends on May 15, he will remain on the board as a governor for some time. AP reported this will be the first time since 1948 that a former Fed chair continues to serve as a board member.

This has two sides for Bitcoin. One, central bank independence is being torn by political pressure, which might renew belief in the significance of “non-sovereign assets.” The other, narratives can’t pay your financing costs. If rates stay high and inflation persists, markets might not be trading “knowledgeable crypto chair,” but “more unpredictable Fed.”

In other words, Waugh might bring a more friendly long-term outlook for crypto, but short-term pricing power still lies with inflation and interest rates.

That’s very crypto.

Good news is real, bad news is real.

The door to long-term remains open.

The “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” has passed the House and is now transferred to the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. It aims to redraw the regulatory landscape for US crypto assets: giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a more central role in crypto trading, while retaining some authority for the SEC in issuance and trading.

Stablecoins are also included in more formal policy discussions. A report from the White House Economic Advisors on April 8 said that, under normal assumptions, banning stablecoin yields would only cause banks to lend an extra $2.1 billion, about 0.02% of total loans, but users would lose about $800 million in benefits. Even with the most aggressive assumptions, expanding the stablecoin market to roughly six times its current size would add only $531 billion in loans, a 4.4% increase in bank lending.

These are all long-term positives. But in the short term, all stories must first pass the Fed’s test.

Powell’s last appearance at the podium didn’t leave the market with a pretty sentence.

He left a more realistic question: when the crypto market is finally ready to be embraced by the system, can it first endure a period of more expensive money?

Money hasn’t gone far, just become more expensive.