Recently, a bunch of LST/re-staking screenshots have been flying around again. It looks pretty lively, but the returns, honestly, boil down to only a few types: the basic yield from consensus, the subsidies external protocols offer to attract TVL, and then the expected premium from various “points/testnet incentives.” The first two are still somewhat computable, but the third one is more like emotion looking at itself in the mirror: everyone starts speculating about whether the mainnet will issue tokens, so they bid the price up into something that’s “possible.”

The risks are also pretty straightforward: the same piece of collateral gets layered over and borrowed out multiple times—if there’s a vulnerability, a penalty, or a liquidation on-chain, the reaction will be faster than you think. And on top of that, with redemption queues and thin liquidity, if you want to run, you still have to line up.

Anyway, what I care about more right now is whether I can exit at any time. As for points… forget it, let’s not talk about that for now.