$BTC

I’ve remained open to price trading towards the Daily 200 EMA, and potentially the Yearly Open. However, this does not alter my broader directional bias.
Higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) continues to suggest this is a bear market rally rather than a confirmed reversal.
For that to change, I would need to see clear acceptance above the Monthly 12/21 EMAs.
HTF Plan:
• Exercise caution at the Daily 200 EMA
• Acceptance above then I’m open to continuation towards the Yearly Open
• Rejection then likely formation of a lower high
Bull case: If we see a successful retest and hold of the Monthly 12/21 EMAs (currently 82.3k–84k), I would then anticipate another test of the Yearly Open. Sustained acceptance above these EMAs especially the Yearly Open, this would shift my bias towards the low being established. At present, price action does not yet support that conclusion.
Bear case:
Price may break above the Daily 200 EMA and the Monthly 12/21 EMAs, but fail to reclaim the Yearly Open. A subsequent move lower, losing those key levels, would suggest this was a deviation increasing the likelihood of the macro low forming later in the year rather than at current levels.
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